15 Comments
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Harrie Scarlet's avatar

What an amazing write up, Samantha, you have done an exceptional job here. There are so many pearls of wisdom here, I will have to read this a few more times to make sure I think more about it.

Hitting Mag7 (60% of US GDP) as a way of hitting US economy, Chinese reverse brain drain, asymmetry between Chinese and US stock markets and how their households are impacted by stock prices, asymmetry between Chinese and US manufacturing and why tariffs on China will be Trump's blunder, the interesting timing of Deepseek release. How you have connected the dots is just amazing.

Just upgraded to paid subscriber. Keep up the great work!

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Samantha LaDuc's avatar

BLESS YOU HARRIE!!

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Glorfindel's avatar

After reading this a second time through per your recommendation, I am in awe.

You're operating at another level. Just incredible insight. Capturing the 'shadow warfare' of the undersea cable cutting associated with your thesis is leaving no stone unturned.

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Samantha LaDuc's avatar

Patterns...

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Kay's avatar
Feb 3Edited

Excellent excellent piece. I bet we will be looking back to this note as the first to call for a China resurgence. I, along with everyone else, have been morbidly focussed on the real estate led investment overhang in China, ageing population and seeing Japan unfold. What we missed however is the GOAT MOAT they’ve built which you’ve illustrated so well above. They’ve won all prior manufacturing battles (DJI drones or Segways anyone?) taking innovation from the west and then refining and mass producing it. Now they have a new fulcrum (AI) and with their giant lever - it looks like they will move the world. Again.

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Samantha LaDuc's avatar

I am grateful for your feedback and restacking!!

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Denis's avatar

Makes sense. I vividly remember Sputnik and the initial period of stunned silence before it was fully realized the Russians had, even in their postwar reconstruction period managed to surpass American technology. Shocking stuff. This feels the same only worse because we’ve only been able to see what they’ve made visible and it’s highly likely there are weapons platforms out there that the U.S. doesn’t know about. But military hardware may take on a secondary role as destabilization of the financial system in the U.S. might be more effective in crippling the country without firing a shot . Maintain high alert status

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Arnold's avatar

What do you think of $CHAU? Is this the right time to enter the trade or it’s too early? Thank you for the detailed description of possible scenarios regarding China’s dominance today and in the future.

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Samantha LaDuc's avatar

I hate direxion products because they hurt retail traders who are unsuspecting. THESE ARE DERIVATIVE PRODUCTS MEANT TO FALL. Few know how to trade them correctly/well.

Pls consider the direct tech plays - BABA, BIDU, PDD, JD - or the very liquid ETF with very thick option markets - KWEB, FXI, EEM. Do not give Direxion your hard earned money. My .02.

You can even trade issues in Hong Kong via IBKR - lots of ways to make money. The trick is not to lose it and Direxion is betting you do.

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Arnold's avatar

Thank you! Still learning, trying to make $… So far unsuccessfully…. One day, one day.

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Samantha LaDuc's avatar

YOU WILL GET THERE - BECAUSE YOU ARE WILLING TO DO THE WORK.

all the best!

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v.'s avatar

this i didn’t know. direxion are meant to fall how?

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Samantha LaDuc's avatar

Zoom out over time - you will see that these complex DERIVATIVES products are designed for sophisticated day traders ONLY, not buy-and-hold investors. Even when markets are relatively flat, these funds can lose substantial value through daily resets and compounding. If you want leverage, use defined risk OPTIONS.

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v.'s avatar

knew that but wondering how like say, ProShares etf’s were different? like BOIL isn’t meant for long term either so was wondering if Dixerion is super odd or somethin’.

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Samantha LaDuc's avatar

nope, all the double & triple ETFs are day-trading vehicles only, but liquidity is SO POOR, i advise all my clients to just STAY AWAY.

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