Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 2/4/25
With #LTR Notes - by Samantha, Rithika and Mikey
Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 2/4/25
I’m back from a mini-vaca/long weekend with much to catch up on! On again/ Off again tariffs is clearly the theme. That, and much head-scratching and agenda-pushing around DeepSeek and NVDA/semis. You have my detailed thoughts on this - THIS IS THE MANHATTAN PROJECT 2.0 - so just going to summarize my market positioning view here: THE GAME is bullish until either the macro flows or fundamentals disrupt them.
PLTR was a nice gift to return to: PLTR hit my “$100 Q1” price target post earnings this morning. Let’s review this trade as I have been as laser focused on it since May 2023 when it broke-out > 8.94 on the biggest volume I had ever seen come into a earnings beat. Client Tim can attest, this has been front-and-center for both of us for nearly 2 yrs AND at $40 I said “$79 by EOY, $100 Q1”. And that’s exactly what has happened. Thank you options market for it showed the way - despite the fact that PLTR beat on a measly $39M, moving the market cap $39B or that, as Ross Hendricks spotted, “Stripping out stock comp from income and you have a stock trading at over 700x earnings”. Point is: I have a ‘mom-radar’ for fraud and story-stocks, and this is probably both, but for now: $106 was my pre-market point for this to top and turn until months from now when it likely makes another run into the hot-hot sun ($126).
NVDA - repeatedly gave $113 as short PT last few weeks as area for stronger support with SMH $231. We hit the former this Mon and the latter last Mon. Now NVDA/SMH bulls are hoping for an executive order from Trump to boycott China chips in general, DeepSeek in particular. We talked about how to protect until price turns higher again at last week’s Options Power Hour.
Speaking of which, Hans and I have Macro-to-Micro OPTIONS Power Hour tomorrow: sign up here.
CHINA PLAYS: ROUND 3 - BABA, KWEB, FXI, BIDU, JD - The options market is betting we get up/stay above “The Wall” I have been showcasing since OCTOBER! Lucky or good, I nailed that bottom and top, then the Dec pop which I said was ‘too early’ before calling for March trend-reversal breakout most likely. Well, BABA has earnings next Wednesday and China is back from holiday tonight and I think they have decided to get this party started early judging from the WAY OTM calls of size on this sector. Good luck, and don’t be surprised if we get a parabola in China tech that then gets chased while US Tech … doesn’t.
TEM - is the Nancy Pelosi play we caught at open Jan 21st where I said it needs to stay > 21.90 D and close above 43.88 W to continue higher. We just tagged Wkly resistance of 65.34. Alexander did a great write-up on this and posted to #Kentons-corner-of-biopharma soon after the above call which supported a fundamental bullish take as well. After digestion, it likely pushes higher.
Swing Shorts Working:
FDX - < 294 rec’d has now formed a gap below wkly channel support so 245 next PT.
ANF - < 148 to soon 110 PT.
Currency Changes In The Air & What This Means to Metals & Mining…