Rising Dollar Is Deflationary
The Dollar Makes The Weather
Yes, WATCH THE DOLLAR was my strong warning last week on Fed Day, and now the market clearly sees why: falling metals, falling oil, weak markets (especially tech) and soon (?) longer-duration yields as the short-end spikes higher.
I have a thesis & timing trigger on yields that will matter to equity returns.
For now, I have focused on the first three themes - falling metals, falling oil, weak markets (especially tech). In a future post I will focus on my Macro Over Mania theme concerning short and long end yields, but for now bond market smells it with the rising dollar and rising SHORT-term rates on Fed hike expectations.
Bank of America expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times this year, shifting from its prior view of no changes. June 22, 2026
Remember: Oil market ALWAYS overshoots, and when it does - to the downside - the dollar AND yields can in time … TURN violently lower and also overshoot.
Then the manic AI bulls will credit the equity chase once again to fundamentals, and I will be right back on this page warning it is FLOWS over fundamentals and MACRO over mania.
But for now...
