WATCH THE DOLLAR

Real quick note post live trading room 2-3PM today, Fed Day

Market read: Hawkish Hold - as 9 OF 18 FOMC members expect 2026 RATE HIKE

And PCE expectations HOT:

• PCE Inflation forecast is up almost a full percentage point since March.

• 1 rate hike by year-end

• Slightly slower GDP growth for 2026

Then Warsh speaks:
No forward guidance = no transparency and... Warsh will move the goalposts on inflation & get a committee to rubberstamp them.

Live trading room client gets it:

“so mkt is calming down and going up coz they are interpreting the task forces as a way to make fed policies more mkt freindly? like changing inflation gauge itself that will make it easy to cut rates eventually?”

But dollar smells something else: