Macro Warnings Positioned Clients For Out-Sized Gains: Long Oil & VIX; Short Peace
Recent Macro-To-Micro Market Timing Calls
I started warning loudly February 16th: IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN
“Iran escalation does not look easily winnable for Trump. It looks like a bluff inside a trap, which sets up as a dangerous game of “concession or consequence”.
Then February 22nd: STRATEGIC PATIENCE IS NEEDED
“Well, if US goes to war in the Middle East, a lot of things can break - and I’m not just referring to the supply chain disruptions in the Straight of Hormuz that would spike crude oil to near $100. I’m talking about the confidence crisis in the USD and US treasuries among other things.
Friday February 27th: YOU BUY INSURANCE BEFORE YOU NEED IT
Since that post, VIX has risen 70%.
Since that post, US oil prices are on track for their largest weekly gain on record in data going back to 1982, now up +34.5% this week alone.
Saturday February 28th: PREPARE FOR A PROTRACTED MIDDLE EAST WAR
“For equity players, VLO & PBF provide viable swing long alternatives as way to play both the rise in the underlying and demand in distillates.”
VLO is up 14%
BPF is up 34%
Monday March 2nd: WINNING ISN’T EVEN ON MY BINGO CARD
Update from my Feb 26th Software/Hardware sector rotation call:
“Our Software/Tech bounce also makes sense given they don’t have exposure to the Strait of Hormuz.”
ALL SOFTWARE PLAYS GIVEN RAN HIGHER (INTU, TRI, IGV, APP, NFLX, SPOT, PLTR, NOW, IBM, GWRE, CRWD ... )
“While the momo trade of memory/DRAM (South Korea EWY) and related stocks (SNDK, WDC, MU, STX) looks ready to retreat.”
EWY crashed 14% with EEM, EWT, EWJ
Clients can attest!
Client Tom:
“I just calculated and did better than if I had traded underlying. I should have entered at 17.50, I remember you saying that was the level and you nailed it. I didn’t get in until about 20.5 though. I still made over $20Ok USD on the trade though and would have made more had I followed your instructions to a tee! “
Client River:
“made an oil trade that made $17k in 1 day because of you, easily paying for (membership), thank you for your oil price target.”
Client Jack:
“I think I have a new nickname for you #marketmom, today literally played out EXACTLY as you said this morning! $VIX dropping to 25.20, puts getting monetized, then rip $VIX rip back up, made some nice profit today. Took some $$ off letting some ride. $47K profit today :-) In 2026 you have paid for 10 lifetimes of membership fees.”
And this was ALL before my recent client post highlighting:
How High Can Oil Go
Tech To Lose Its Key Source Of Funds
Or my warning Thursday right before markets sold off:
Or my warning today of weekend risk AND my AI ecosystem shorts recommended from Feb 26th all coming together…