Little Note: Big Warning
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I did a rant this morning live in my trading room of what to buy and what to avoid and what to short and my HIGH conviction Iran Risk Is Not Priced In - as I have been writing about for weeks - and why I warned our Nov value rotation plays would peter out end of Feb & last week's call for right tail rotation in software would catch a bounce... and not to outstay our visit in either.
USD, OIL & YIELDS are about to form a wrecking ball on markets unless we get policy intervention.
Granted, I can still see a swoosh lower - like into Friday/Monday - getting bought back up again next week and this whiplash of a market quietly rotating into risk-off under the surface as we move into March OpEx. But I am hard-pressed to see a sustainable move higher in markets until a solid washout lower - in the SPX 6630-6530 range at a minimum - where I could better assess impact on oil, yield and currency volatility on credit, treasury and equity markets.
I'll write more later but for now, I see an energy crisis forming that can turn inflationary assets (like the stock market) into recessionary liabilities should Trump's strategy of chaos with his War on Iran turn allies and global supply chains into collateral damage.
Don't be complacent, please.
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Thanks for the read Samantha, great content as usual. There will be no short of macro catalysts before the midterm, if Trump manages to wrap up and get out of the ME soon enough and refocus on Cuba, which will be a completely different story than VEN and requires the deployment of ground trooops...