Month End Spies Higher
Typical month-end spike into the close. With that, here are what the chart timeframes tell me, still:
H: price > 6666 is bullish on intraday; bearish below.
D: price > 6621 (negative gamma level) is bullish above/bearish below; also it reversed off 8D EMA to engulf the prior day.
W: (not shown) still in trend > 10W EMA since May in beautiful 45 degree angle “up and to the right”
M: strong morning-star-reversal candle formation with five follow-through monthly candles - each one closing on highs. Only caveat:
My “5-Bar Rule” ;-) = time for digestion/chop sideways that can result in reversion to mean shorts once above levels trigger
6713 is top of monthly Bollinger Band = time for digestion/chop sideways that can result in reversion to mean shorts once above levels trigger
Point is: nothing new to add since I called this formation/price target out early July:
Look Mom, “6955!”
What you will also notice is the Fib retracement I threw on back in early July where I gave the upside, big picture SPX price targets of $6500 to start - later highlighting an overshoot to 6666 before potential volatility into Govt Shutdown. I also highlighted an upside of ~$7000 with $8200 possible in crack-up boom / dollar devaluation backdrop. It’s still in play IN TIME!!
See that upside Fib level at $6950? Maybe someone else sees it too…
Here’s your Dec Quarterly JPM Put Spread Collar
JHEQX (JP Morgan’s fund) is rolling its large hedge by buying a put spread and selling (HIGHER) calls against to finance.
+35.6k of the DecQ 5310/6290 Put Spread
-35.6k of the DecQ 6955 Call
trades with 0DTE 6450 Call (16,600x)
Point is: this is also bullish as we likely roll higher INTO their upside call at 6955. No guarantees, but it can act as a magnet is all I’m saying.
IN THE MEANTIME, it is also common for a monthly Bollinger Band to act as resistance - which could push markets marginally lower to sideways into the seasonally volatile month of October.
Premarket Morning Rant On Repeat
Corporate buyback blackout of ~95% until Oct 24th. CTAs need to see selling before they do.
Breadth starting to soften into Govt shutdown risk, but Liquidity (read: Buying) still solid.
That will change if my Growth:Value ratio tanks & it is getting closer but it has not triggered.
US yields, dollar & oil chopping sideways for weeks allowing market to grind higher. Focus lies in when that changes with velocity.
Narrative is clear: bull market rationalizing of bubble-like valuations.
Volmegeddon hedges rolling in for YE & gold skew eyes big macro risks down the road.
One eye on VIX; the other on Yen.
THAT PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP MY MARKET THOUGHTS IN GENERAL.
