December 10 & 11, 2025 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades - (Samantha and AI Briefing notes)
Short Chases/Swings of late: NVDA, AAPL, META, MRVL, NFLX, CRDO, HOOD, AVGO, ORCL Consumer Cyclical Longs (from late Nov): LULU, JBHT, ANF, EL, DG, DLTR, ADBE, CRM, TGT Trend Long Updates: WRBY, ASTS
Fed Day Action
Fed Day was busy for me as I had two live trading room sessions and an inspired Market Thoughts from my Wed premarket rant about the $25-30T in debt the US govt needs to roll next year. You can find them here:
The Ultimate DOLLAR DEBASEMENT TRADE - with a follow up piece today:
The MATH to the 80% of US GOVT DEBT that comes due NEXT YEAR!!
For this post FOMC press conference, there was clearly a bullish tilt in most of Powell’s words. I ran the trading room during the 2-3PM ET session to cover both the FOMC release with the new “Not QE, QE” RMP Fed liquidity facility to Powell’s press conference. For those who joined, you had my live commentary (quarterbacking) and can attest that it was easy to see the leading trade was:
Falling dollar, followed by
VIX crush (triggered on break of 16.63 level given Mon), followed by
Move higher in equities with SPX & QQQ!
Yesterday as Powell spoke I said. “VIX is all bark & no bite”. Then Dollar dumped & Market pumped.
I even said afterhours & again premarket this morning that I could still see these higher price targets I gave - despite ORCL dumping afterhours and pulling indices lower.
These targets still haven’t tagged but we are close: SPX 6925 & QQQ 631.19! And yes, they are the same targets I gave pre-FOMC Tues/Wed.
Again this morning after ORCL scared out the recent bulls and VIX retested 16.63, I said: “VIX is all bark & no bite”.
But once these targets do tag, I’m not so confident market will get/stay above - at least not without a proper 200 drop lower first.
SPX - 6925; IF it can get/stay above we have risk of melt-up into $7100
QQQ - 631; IF it can get/stay above we have risk of melt-up into $659