US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ACTUAL 3.9% (FORECAST 3.8%, PREVIOUS 3.8%) Sahm Rule will trigger - pulling recession risk forward.As I suspected: Forget about a December rate hike! In fact, the SOFR market is pulling forward a cut to MAR from JUNE SOFR3 June 50bps cut. 1st 25bps cut moves to March.
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Bond Bounce Because...
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US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ACTUAL 3.9% (FORECAST 3.8%, PREVIOUS 3.8%) Sahm Rule will trigger - pulling recession risk forward.As I suspected: Forget about a December rate hike! In fact, the SOFR market is pulling forward a cut to MAR from JUNE SOFR3 June 50bps cut. 1st 25bps cut moves to March.