5/01/25 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades
ALL FROM MY LIVE TRADING ROOM
From last week as clients can attest:
NVO VKTX long - ✅✅
GLD GDX short - ✅✅
SPX long to 5633.27 - HIT TODAY!
QQQ long 487.20 - HIT TODAY!
NVDA long to 116 - working
TSLA long to 304 - working
SBUX swing short from much higher to 75 - ✅
I keep warning: THIS is a bear-market rally, but that doesn’t mean you can’t be tactically long - either from my SPX $4878 posted price target for the sell-off from Feb to April, or just for all the reasons I highlighted last week & repeated Monday and again yesterday!
Stalking The Next Turn
After May OpEx & NVDA earnings May 29th, I wouldn’t be so bullish. In fact, this is likely when markets front-run the July 4th tariff deadline - if not sooner should the tax cuts/debt ceiling resolution aren’t resolved around Memorial Day Weekend.
Inflation prints are lagging. So too is labor data. Jobless Claims ticked up to 242K today from the usual 222K print. All those DOGE layoffs will start to print after the severance pay runs out. We will most likely have a perfect storm of spiking higher jobless claims same time that tariff-driven inflation kicks in same time as inventory goes missing from the shelves.
Again, this rally is not led by CAPITAL FLOWS & CONFIDENCE, even though META & MSFT crushed it Wednesday - AS EXPECTED & recommended. And no surprise AAPL & AMZN tonight did not. But big cap/mega tech earnings will finish soon and there will be bulls left hoping for macro news to keep the rug in place:
PEACE DEALS
TRADE DEALS
TAX CUTS/DEBT CEILING DEALS
And if they do not materialize- for real, not simply in talking points - then market will call the Trump/Bessent/Lutnik bluff and punish them with spiking higher yields and gold, while dumping equities and bonds. Again.