3/7/25 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades
I started writing my trading room review but it got a bit expansive, so I published as a separate market thoughts post ;-)
Volatility Is Not Done
“Over the last 12 days, the S&P 500 High Beta Index has lost 14.4%. Meanwhile, the Low Volatility Index is up 1.4% over the same time period. All over Wall Street, folks are selling risk and buying security.” Eddy Elfenbein March 6th.
As we move into the new trading week, we are still in negative gamma as we approach CPI Wednesday with PPI and Jobless Claims Thursday. Most importantly, the US Govt faces a potential shutdown Friday.
I expect a growth rotation at some point and of size, but there is nothing in my work that says THIS growth scare is done. Agree this has been controlled demolition with growth rotating TO value. But as I often say, “In lieu of rotation there will be volatility.”
Agree, it’s not usually a good idea to “short into the hole” at 200D and yet, it better hold next 2 weeks or else “first tag we bounce, second tag we trounce”. For bulls, the 10Y yield needs to rise (~4.49%) to keep equities supported. For bears, that’s where we most likely get rejected again.
TRADE UPDATES - Chase, Swing & Trend
NFLX - was best chase short for day 2, as price just fell quickly down into the 867 price target I had given the previous day.
COST - APR 960P worked great into earnings and THAT IS EXACTLY WHERE IT CLOSED.
WMT - continues to fade from pre-earnings rec’d short at 104 now sitting on 100D at 92 on way to 88.64.
QQQ - tagged 480 overshoot - which I said was 3 levels of weekly support - before the “Powell Put” was activated and markets bounced strongly intraday.
SPX - tagged exactly 5666, a little past my 5670 PT (SPY 565.63), before bouncing - as VIX came back inside 25.20. SVXY tagged 45 and bounced of critical support.
XLF - short made it clear from my rec’d 52 short entry to 48.25 in 5 days, creating an outsized bearish engulfing on the weekly with potential for oversold bounce.