3/13/25 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades
Attempted Stabilization
Market is trying so hard to stabilize, but the buyers stepped away and just have not re-entered - as posted in my weekend Intermarket Analysis for LADUCTRADING.COM clients. And why would they, we are still gripped in:
Jobless claims looked benign this morning, but are they really?
As Ross Hendricks reminds:
“Nasdaq declined 50% in 2000 with unemployment never rising above 4.1% (exactly where we are today). Then, as now, the economy was inflated by an asset bubble.
It was the popping of that bubble that led to unemployment spiking to 6.3% from 2001 - 2003, not the other way around. Those waiting for a spike in job losses for their sell signal will be left holding a rather large bag.”
Market doesn’t see that yet, and yet… the Controlled Demolition of market weakness continues from a clear lack of liquidity which is confirmed by my Fed Liquidity indicator. It hasn’t broken beneath my line-in-sand since BEFORE the yen carry trade unwind of July.
Money continues to leave. Maybe they heard Scott Bessent on CNBC this morning:
“The easy thing for us to have done, would have been to come in and just keep this massive spending going. But it’s unsustainable. Could we have kept it going for another 4 years? Yea maybe, but you’re risking financial calamity down the road.”
Or read in Bloomberg the price re-rating:
Evercore ISI says stagflation would trigger a bear case where the S&P 500 could fall to 5,200 by year-end.
As we stare into Friday’s US Government Shutdown risk, and stare up into the Blood Worm Moon early Saturday morning, bulls did get a headline they might like:
"There is a growing consensus Lutnick could be forced to take the fall for the economic chaos."
TRADE UPDATES
SWINGS:
TSLA - I only had $180 from $390 rec’d short - which I cover live in my trading room daily. This morning, JPM is out cutting TSLA price target to $120 - so a 50% downside from here!
SLV - just rec’d APR calls yday on squeeze potential. That’s working! Miners are very excited. Already swing long WPM, AEM, AGI… I like PAAS here - call spread as 26 is monthly resistance it needs to get above to advance into 30.
AAPL - March 5th rec’d “new swing short into 220” and I have been updating the lower PTs ever since 220 was taken out Tuesday! It tagged 208.42 today so I expect a bounce before settling down near $200 next month.
LLY - cont’d short has paid off from 915 monthly rejection, as it tagged 800 today and overshot to 795 monthly support I gave as overshoot. Major bearish engulfing on monthly here. Bounce then trounce in future months.
COST - cont’d swing short since rec’d pre-earnings has crashed back to the 50W past my 896 PT given last week.
WMT - con’t swing short since rec’d pre-earnings gapped down to start the week, slicing through my 88.64, 84.85 PTs. It is approaching 50W/200D very soon where I expect some digestion.
CAVA - con’t swing short continues to get crushed
ANF - con’t swing short has now been cut in half!! This really should ‘bounce then trounce’ into 50, but I still see no buyers stepping in - only JAN ‘26 $25P bought - which is my PT for the year!
XHB - con’t swing short since lumber tariffs is breaking key 96.92 monthly support.
HD - con’t swing short since lumber tariffs crashed into 345.69 monthly support.
CHASES:
FTNT - was a good chase today after the open at 97.40 with 92.53 PT
TSLA - was a good chase today after open on break of 241 to 235 PT.
MARKET:
SPX - today filled my “5523.64 PT” so now it is allowed to bounce ;-)
QQQ - is having a hard timing holding 471 because of AAPL, so a bounce in one equals support bounce in the other.
IWM - already hit my 199 PT.
DIA - already hit my 412 and overshot to 407 in large part due to AAPL.
We really should stabilize here but I still see NO buyers stepping in. None.
Wen credit spreads?
