Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
What Are Chances Of A Melt-Up From Here?
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What Are Chances Of A Melt-Up From Here?

USD & US 10Y yield are even perkier than I expected. Crude oil is bouncing on cue. But VIX toying with backwardation is absolutely getting in the way of a market melt-up.

Samantha LaDuc's avatar
Samantha LaDuc
Oct 10, 2024
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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
What Are Chances Of A Melt-Up From Here?
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» CLUB/EDGE client post OCTOBER 9TH, 3:00 PM ET.

Volatility Backwardation Threatens

Now that SPX has pushed above not only THE key $5750 call wall but also prior all-time-high of 5767.37 from Sept 26th, my higher price targets are clearly in view: 5820 to 6010 - as long as we STAY above 5767.37 on daily close.

But are we just going there without acknowledging these looming economic risks ahead:

  1. ELECTION - Nov 5th and all that entails

  2. HURRICANES - Helene last week; Milton this week and the hit to GDP not to mention unemployment.

  3. MIDDLE EAST WAR - which is not going away anytime soon & could spike oil not to mention nuclear escalation.

Pretty much looks like markets don't know how to price the above in AND/OR positioning in markets is overestimating volatility.

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Intermarket Divergences A-plenty!

Overestimating volatility may explain some of my divergences I have shown clients of late, like this chart of VIX3M/VIX:

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