What About VIX?

I already warned SEPTEMBER 18TH: "$VIX. It's Time."
Now that we have moved from 12 to 21 last week, and pushed into 22.87 PT today, I do not see this as done but dancing.

Swing longs have been repeatedly warned already: I still don't see a capitulation low!
I am more inclined to stay cautious. And with that, Trend longs should worry as my list grows shorter with no new additions.

Who knows: maybe the Mag4 reporting this week thoroughly delight, and VIX crashes back below 18 and stays there - the only level I trust for a capitulation low.
I am much more inclined to see Volatility as a dance and as such: VIX SWING LONG IS STILL WORKING

I posted my bigger thoughts on rising VIX under #intermarket-tells channel. It could take months to reach my upper price targets.
Today was a well timed market chase long on VIX coming back in for a few hours, but I still see this move off the Monday lows as a bounce. We need much more follow-through to convince me.

So now the question is if we have an absence of big fear at VIX 21, where do you think markets will be when we hit 26? And then once we get/stay > 26, where will markets be when we hit 40?
VIX calls have not been monetized, yet, in large part, I believe, because I said the 10Y above 4.7% would be volatility inducing! It was! Now bulls need to see it get back below!

Then I ask myself, WHAT IF the 10Y stays above my affectionately-called "black-line-of death" at 4.9% on a wkly/monthly time-frame?
THAT is yearly resistance but could turn support. That is an important level to be risk-aware!!

So with that, where will markets be "if 40 then 80" VIX?
Yes, I'm looking at this - and not for the parallels with 1987 or 1929 - BUT for the max pain trade of EOY at SPX $3800.SO SO FEW ARE POSITIONED FOR 3800 THIS YEAR that I think it bears considering.
Why?  I said before: 10Y above 4.7% = VIX. Below is the only real chance bulls have of getting equities to put in a capitulation low for more than a chase.

Treasury Issuance report (QRA) is released on Halloween Oct 31st. LOL
And yes, Yellen may push the big Treasury issuance out until EOY, delaying the inevitable, but that only pushes my VIX concerns out into Q1.

In the meantime, FED IS TRAPPED. I see no Nov/Dec FOMC decision of substance - just pause. No hike. No cut.

Best bet for bulls: USD swaps are used (read: DXY softens below $105.77 on weekly) to help corporations with solid balance sheets, lots of cash, and large moats to benefit from currency exchange helping revenues. That is there best bet to help them stick this landing.

Problem is: it won't help the already-suffering small-to-medium companies recover before the recession next year.
And yes, I see a recession next year, and as such I am watching the SAHM rule I've written about for The Tell:

The Sahm rule: when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage point or more above its low in the prior 12 months, we are in a recession.
From 0.1 < 0.5. rule has called every recession since the 1970s perfectly.

At the very least it bears watching for when it triggers on some non-farm payrolls report day, volatility should reappear from more than a trade.
Upcoming NFP dates of note: Nov 3rd then Dec 8th.Otherwise, we have Q1 to worry about.

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