Week of July 7th, 2025 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades
No Signs Of Weakness, Yet
NVIDIA and Bitcoin made all-time highs yesterday. I alerted NVDA on Tues for a chase to 172.
I also posted very bullish BTC/USD & ETH/USD charts just before the breakout.
Now let’s see HOW bullish ETH really is…
Earlier in the week, NDX and S&P made all-time highs. We had selling on the top line Mon & Wed but not underneath. Even yday live when market was fading, I said it was too strong under the surface. SPX recovered nicely to not only fill the 6271.35 hrly gap fill I called out but close above it.
VIX even tagged 15.70 yday - but not yet my 15.50. It will.
Then last night, after Trump declared 50% tariffs on Brazil earlier in the day, he slapped 35% tariffs on our largest trading partner: Canada.
Futures fell -.5% last night as market starts to wonder... is TACO man coming back? Or as Bessent threatened: it's more like FAFO?
With that, VIX is pushing 16.50 as I write, but it is not a threat until above 19.50. And more to the point again, IT’S NOT TIME.
Intraday liquidity IS softening (-.26 CUM VOL) but NVDA is still green and still looking strong into potential 172 PT in the near future.
Tues: if NVDA stays below 159 it can drop to 150. If it gets/stays above 161 it can form a weekly doji sandwich and run to 172.
It's running higher so VIX won't likely get the traction bears would like.
It's just not time for VIX, yet. But that doesn't mean you don't hedge for AUG volatility into SEPT/OCT.
Imran Lakha highlights why this is also a good idea:
"While spot VIX dropped below 16, following realised vol into the single digits, something else happened under the surface.
The VIX curve developed one of the steepest rolldowns I’ve seen in months.
August and September VIX futures are holding a sizeable premium over front month contracts. Translation: the market isn’t pricing ‘peace on earth’ – it’s bracing for fireworks after August 1st, when the new tariff deadline hits."
My point: yes, we are extended, and after NVDA tags 172 area, take care. But I don't see the strong selling under the surface needed to get tactically/heavily short the market, yet.
KEY TRADING PATTERNS STILL WORKING
Charts & Levels Reviewed:
NVDA, SPX, UBER, SLV
KSS, TGT, BIDU, JBHT, BTU, CLF, MSOS
UUUU, CSX, RCAT, ACHR
AG, BA, FCX, UFO, COPX, XME, NEM
AMD, NXPI, STM, ON, DELL, QCOM, MRVL
FLR, VLO, MPC, PBF
IWM, UUP, DOW, FSLR