We Should Have Volatility

I am SHOCKED we don't have more volatility.

Gold and Silver with their 'war vibes' are retreating a wee bit on intraday USD strength, but man... the fact USD is strong with 10Y above my "black line of death" 4.9% means WE SHOULD HAVE VOLATILITY, but we don't so... nothing else to write about until EITHER peace breaks out to cause bullish trigger OR 10Y gets back down/stays back down below 4.9% to cause bullish trigger.

Otherwise, I'm still bearish.

Anyway, TLT to $81.23 2009 high is still my baseline bet, but I thought it would take awhile with back-and-fill, but long-term bonds seem determined to roll-over with rising treasury issuance, continued QT, positive/rising term premia and spiking higher nominal GDP.

How we haven't blown out some credit spreads and spiked VIX is beyond me with my USD/10Y taking out ATHs. Anything above 300 is RISK-OFF; well, it is above 325. Makes no sense.NVDA selling off does make sense, however.
No new chases other than SPX to 4329 today and no new swings until I can figure out direction with conviction.

We discussed the weakness in EV playahs with LI + XPEV continuing to fall.
Also the strength in cyber plays ZS CRWD RPD etc.
Gold and Miners have gotten extended but not a safe short with oil until AFTER a sign of Middle East risk premium getting removed.

Now just waiting for my growth-to-value to rollover with vigor next.
TSLA + NFLX earnings after the close should help.

Good luck and pls don't be complacent!!

As Tiff reminded: Last wed same thing: yields ramped in the morning before auction and equities held then sold off at 1:15.

SO WATCH CRAIG'S CHANNEL FOR UPDATED AUCTION RESULTS AT 1ET!! #macro-advisor-craig

---

Did you enjoy #samanthas-market-thoughts posted above? Then you would love full access to her and her live trading room, detailed macro and intermarket analysis, not to mention full portfolio of trades across Chase, Swing and Trend timeframes!
Upgrade to CLUB or EDGE today!