I wish I knew, really I do. Trump is very good at keeping the market strong. Now we get to see if he can do the same for the economy. Color me skeptical.
I had been thinking only a 'global margin call' could stop the GOLD train. I am starting to think not even that can do it. This is not like 2008. Sovereign debt is no longer a safe haven, so what is? Gold and... that's it. Trillions will have to go somewhere safe in the panic. Some will still reflexively choose treasuries, but many will not. I bet the buying pressure > forced margin call selling. A quick and steep dip in gold maybe, but if you blink you will miss it. It will not be like 2008.
I'm coming to a similar conclusion. And even in 2008, gold bottomed in October, five months before SPX did in March ‘09. It had already ripped 45% by the time the market hit the bottom.
Fascinating, as always. The July 3rd '25 tweet box is sobering. "Not soft landing kinda stuff"
Does the music stop suddenly or gradually slow down? Perhaps we won't have long to find out.
I wish I knew, really I do. Trump is very good at keeping the market strong. Now we get to see if he can do the same for the economy. Color me skeptical.
I had been thinking only a 'global margin call' could stop the GOLD train. I am starting to think not even that can do it. This is not like 2008. Sovereign debt is no longer a safe haven, so what is? Gold and... that's it. Trillions will have to go somewhere safe in the panic. Some will still reflexively choose treasuries, but many will not. I bet the buying pressure > forced margin call selling. A quick and steep dip in gold maybe, but if you blink you will miss it. It will not be like 2008.
I'm coming to a similar conclusion. And even in 2008, gold bottomed in October, five months before SPX did in March ‘09. It had already ripped 45% by the time the market hit the bottom.
Morgan Stanley just issued a major sell rating on U.S. Treasuries!
The only way to go from a 60/40 portfolio to a 60(stocks)/20(bonds)/20(gold) portfolio is to SELL BONDS.
This isn't just about DEMAND FOR GOLD.
But SUPPLY IN BONDS that will help yields rise not fall!
Sam, do you see a traditional dip in the market in September end of or October?
If so, how far down a percentage do you see?
Big fan too!