Undercurrent Of Weakness Persists
2025 - Make Volatility Great Again
Welcome 2025!!
We certainly have a Santa's Rally in dollar, gold and oil today!
But markets are acting disappointed like they didn't get what they wanted from Santa.
Today, indexes slipped below negative gamma as dollar climbed strongly. I warned rates did not look bearish, and MAG7 is still weak/falling.
(Thank you AAPL, TSLA, QQQ shorts.)
Brian Garrett of GS posted that the last two weeks of this year have not worked out as expected. We already knew that coming into year end:
INTERMARKET REVIEW WEEK ENDING DEC 13TH, 2024 - Melt-Up Into Instability
Latest Review: INTERMARKET REVIEW WEEK ENDING DEC 27TH, 2024 - Undercurrent Of Weakness Persists
Translation: I saw the net selling and breadth breakdown under the surface start December 2nd, warned December 16th that SPX and QQQ would catch down to IWM and DIA - just before that -3% SPY plunge Dec 18th. We are now revisiting those lows of Friday Dec 20th in NDX.
Also, SPX on Dec 20th lows I posted, "GREEN SHOOTS" before we bounced all the way back from 5832 to 6050.
That's when I warned about that daily bearish harami candle on QQQ which set up a pullback which is now on day 5.
All this despite NY Fed backstopping treasury markets into Jan 3rd. The equity market is clearly, still, in the grips of that "undercurrent of weakness" I pointed out in my detailed, multi-asset, multi-timeframe intermarket review. And yet, VIX is still not above, let alone staying above 19.29, which indicates to me that this is: