Truce, Troops, or True Regime Change
War Changes Everything
Friday morning I reviewed what happened in markets last April 2024 after Israel struck the Iranian consulate in Syria.
Market pulled back ~7% in 17 days. Folks were not as worried on WW3 prospects then like they are now.
Gold had already broken out March 1st; April then saw Silver explode 10% in a week. I remember because Geoffrey warned/timed that SLV breakout with precision.
Oil also moved higher, but from a higher base: $80-87 before I rec'd a short at $85 and predicted we would see $60-40 range by end of 2025. We've already seen $56.
Bonds sold off with stocks as the 10Y yield rose 50bp in that 3 week stretch
USD rose the whole time.
Fast forward to June 11th, 2025: stocks, bonds and dollar are marginally down as gold continues its trend higher, and oil spikes 20% higher since the news of US ordering departure of its personnel from the region, and Netanyahu advances an attack against Iran after 30 years of posturing/threatening to do so - ironically after suffering a political confidence crisis from his government just days prior that resulted in a near collapse just before the attacks.
Also ironically...
SPX $6044 is exactly where I warned clients in advance to expect rejection/digestion. Market is not in melt-up mode until it can get/stay > $6100 with ES at 6127.
QQQ rec'd hedge Wed was well-timed even if the tactic was poor. Also, this hedge was rec'd before news of US ordering departure of personnel...
Gold weakness expected is impossible in times of war vibes.
But the Oil Long I rec'd June 2nd when crude was $62 on expectations of war vibes was well-timed. So was the update I posted Wed that it likely hits "$73 with overshoot to $75.65". It did indeed.
And the TLT bull risk reversal offered up May 22nd as a countertrend bounce only is up 10X.
Also, I noted VIX would hit "22" Friday. It did exactly: 22.00. Lucky or good.