There's A Torpedo Headed For The US Stock Market But It's Not The One You Think
OIL & VIX ALWAYS OVERSHOOT!!
Finding Shelter - From War & Capital Flows
Panic Is Justified - But So Too Is Common Sense
Tipping Point: Sulfur
Tipping Point: Helium
Tipping Point: Fuel Oil
Tipping Point: Insure Vs Ensure
Tipping Point: Food Inflation
Tipping Point: Conditional Surrender
Oil Shocks Are Inflationary & Recessionary
What’s Taiwan Got To Do With It?
US-Israel’s War On Iran Just Killed AI Capex
Cold War 2.0 or Forced Armistice
Trump May Win The Battle But Lose The War to Arab Spring 2.0
MONEY GOES HOME - GCC EDITION
OIL & VIX ALWAYS OVERSHOOT!!
Below I run through bearish/bullish scenarios, duration/impacts, and the biggest market risk that IRAN RISK IS STILL NOT PRICING IN.
But first let’s review:
I don’t often play “The Trader’s Gut” card, ♠️but I did February 2nd:
I didn’t know this would mark the interim top, but I felt strongly we were going down.
“For those not use to volatility, this would be a good time to step aside and let if fall or protect/position/profit now.”
Obviously this was weeks before I started warning loudly February 16th: IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN.
“Iran escalation does not look easily winnable for Trump. It looks like a bluff inside a trap, which sets up as a dangerous game of “concession or consequence”.
Then February 22nd: STRATEGIC PATIENCE IS NEEDED
“Well, if US goes to war in the Middle East, a lot of things can break - and I’m not just referring to the supply chain disruptions in the Straight of Hormuz that would spike crude oil to near $100. I’m talking about the confidence crisis in the USD and US treasuries among other things.”
Since then, my market calls have been well-timed:
VIX is up 70% and crude oil has rocketed 42%.
And neither looks done but clients have my levels in advance so you were able to protect, position and profit.
This weekend, US-Israel bombed Iran’s oil depots: Koohak, Shahran and Karaj.
This was before spiking higher oil & gas prices shocked markets last week, resuling in the largest weekly gain in oil since 1982.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, causing global economic costs to rapidly rise, as both sides debate who is more victorious in their military missions.
Inside Iran there are no signs of regime disintegration but that is exactly what US-Israel hope for - civil unrest and uprising that leads to instability and/or regime change. They do not subscribe to the Islam nation’s mantra that
The tyrant dies and his rule is over, the martyr dies and his rule begins.
Gulf allies haven’t joined in attacking Iran, despite fake news reports mostly by Israel to the contrary. Instead, Gulf Arab nations appear united and angry that Trump launched this war against their wishes.
My target for OIL & VIX is still higher, as highlighted two weeks ago:
