The Coming Energy Deflation-Driven Dollar Dump
Capital Rotation Big Picture
Raising Rates Is Inflationary During Fiscal Dominance
HOGWA(r)SH
Watch The Dollar
Coming Energy Deflation-Driven Dollar Dump
Long JPY Is To Short Oil
Also, Yen Carry Trade Unwind
Watch the US 2Y Yield
Capital Rotation Big Picture
I get asked a lot of questions about capital rotation in my daily live trading room - across all assets and timeframes - but when someone asks me for a 2-5 year window on major macro trends, I often refer to Geoffrey.
Geoffrey Fouvry, who is our classically-trained economist working with our LaDucTrading EDGE clients, has a unique lens on the world. And prescient one from his track record - as he is also a Portfolio Manager.
I summarized our recent discussions live for clients this week and thought it would make for a good placeholder for future discussions.
In a nutshell, Geoffrey sees an energy transition in which today’s strong U.S. dollar eventually gives way to a structural decline driven by falling energy prices, triggering lower inflation, declining interest rates, and a weakening petrodollar system - exactly what Trump, Bessent & Warsh are fighting against. (Wars are always inflationary afterall.)
