SINCE JUNE (5TH-15TH), I warned $504 QQQ was potential turn area - then again past few days including a detailed post yesterday.
Well we tagged 505 and we turned hard intraday. See chart.
Not only that, but my CHASE SHORT $491 PT hit by 2pm ET!
One client really took it and rode it all the way to the bank!
"Took some puts at the open today and got the second account from 50k to over $1M for the year. 2.033 total in about 6 months. Thanks Sam" CLUB upgraded to EDGE client
For those not in my live trading room, I post my summary notes which Rithika posts with hers in both #trading-room-notes AND #chase-ideas.
About noon you had today's highlights:
TIMING DEFLATION & QQQ TOP & ROTATION
I started off the premarket review discussing my long bond thesis on deflation impulse as posted since May and then doubling down in a long client post June 20th.
This morning, CPI printed its first negative MoM print since MAY 2020, and with that:
1. Bonds spiked as yields crashed - again, my baseline bet is we break 4.2% down to 4% this summer. 2. USDJPY dove - as noted Yen was wicked oversold and due a bounce. 3. QQQ spiked into my $504 print premarket and then sold off thru 498 hrly gap fill into 8D at 494 with 491 my next Chase short PT. 4. SPX massive short bet as posted yday for clients under #samanthas-market-thoughts showed 5650 as short level to stay below. 5. Growth-to-Value rotation ratio indicated the MAG7 + SEMI roll-over right on cue.
Best chases were:
COST SHORT - said green to red was baseline bet with cradle formation on daily into 863.52, 556, 849 PTs. ALL HAVE HIT
AAPL SHORT - said 228.78 hr gap fill
QQQ SHORT - said at open I see 498 then 491 this week. We are almost there.
SPX SHORT - said gap fill of 5583 as 1st PTMSFT SHORT - said break of 464 would bring 456 then 453.60 to 451. ALL HIT
IWM LONG - said when +1.78% that JULY 19 $212C heavily bid - They doubled so far.
Very productive trading long value and short growth, but now we need to see follow through, and here's the thing:
My MAG7 ratio has NOT hit PT so I can imagine that tech may have another bounce this earnings season to get me my 161.8 Fib Level in that ratio!!
Last but not least, TSLA TRIGGERED 265 SHORT on this news:
Tesla, $TSLA, plans to delay Robotaxi unveiling to October from August, per Bloomberg.
ONE more thing: UBER just saw yuge volume. This actually looks ready. LOL
Oh and, BioTech Fave Swing Longs are also still working despite the market swoon:
VRNA + 16.40% IS A BEAUTY TGTX +6% is well on its way VKTX +2.22% looks coiled for higher
As you can see from #swing-ideas channel, I posted my new UBER set up and updated the VRNA, TGTX + VKTX set ups as discussed past few days from my trading room.
There is a thread on X that I read/reposted for that ah-ha moment this afternoon. It is what happens when market neutral strategies blow up, or should I say the LONG VIP STOCKS & SHORT JUNK STOCKS stops working and unwinds quickly, blowing up your book, as a hedge fund.
You can check my live trading room recordings past few days. I had called out that I smelled a “hedge fund factor rotation” setting up even before IWC spiked 5% today! This is also what macro-advisor-craig has warned about:
Alpha unwinds beget beta face plants.
But we need to get + stay > $212.25 IWM on a weekly close to really blow funds out of the water AND really press growth stocks lower with value/cyclicals/junk higher.
In the meantime, there is room for my Growth-to-Value ratio rolls over some more, at the same time...
My MAG7 ratio has NOT hit PT so I can imagine that tech may have another bounce this earnings season to get me my 161.8 Fib Level in that ratio!!
I will be sizing up all of the above while keeping in mind a key mantra for a true equity correction that has not triggered which then reprices everything: VIX.
I think this potential HF factor rotation short covering is a big deal to seriously consider, … even though before this swoon I suspected market would not fall apart until through MAG7 Earnings and/or the unemployment rate was above 4.2% and the 10Y yield was below 4.2%.
As fuel for the unwind beyond economic slowdown, we have many prominent names piling on “the AI capex boom doesn’t make sense” call.
In just the past two weeks, we have equity research departments at Barclays, Sequoia, Goldman, Citibank of late warning…
AFTER they made hundreds of billions on $NVDA et al pumping it endlessly.
Since they control the narrative, it would pay to listen.New one just chimed in…
