Thank God It's Friday

As posted Friday morning: Expect a bounce. We are $5 off the $QQQ $355 price target.
But it is all up to bond bulls to defend here: 4.333 on 10Y. Powell at Jackson Hole this week. VIX still poised for breakout on weekly.
Careful

TGIF!!

Omg what a week! I have reviewed my new fave indicator that shows dollar/yields ratio stabilizing which should help stabilize markets today - my bet premarket was that we would stop going down and have a bounce on support. Support is different for every stock, sector, index. For example: IWM at 200D $182 and QQQ as monthly support of $355 as case in point. What gives me some confidence of this happening is not only VIX tagging the 200D PT as suggested this week - where vol sellers should step in even if just for a day or two - but 2/4 of my key intermarket tells dumped perfectly into weekly support. Sadly, breadth is still falling and selling still has room to downside. But first a bounce me thinks.
As Mikey posted in Zoom chat at market open:

QQQ - 355.23 PT hit & now Sam thinks we could bounce here. "bounce" does not mean rally back up again. Having said that:
SO many large cap tech monthly reversal patterns are in process. SO many. AAPL, PANW, MSFT, TSLA ... (Even my two fave FANG stocks are looking peekish: GOOGL > 133 on monthly is bullish; otherwise short; AMZN > 147 monthly is bullish; otherwise not). META staying below 305 monthly keeps it in play short as does NFLX < 474 monthly.

My BIG SECTOR ROTATION CALL JUNE 1ST was that we would have VALUE rotation that would trigger HF FACTOR ROTATION (short covering) which ALWAYS precedes VOLATILITY and then 2nd half of year VALUE outperforming GROWTH. THIS HAS PLAYED OUT PERFECTLY!
Two and 1/2 months later I still see mega cap tech in particular falling rest of year, while "defensive cyclicals" and companies tied to commodities (energy, materials, real estate) and those that benefit from interest-bearing assets in a rising-rate environment will OUTPERFORM. So my TREND PORTFOLIO

In the meantime, BOND BULLS STILL NEED TO DEFEND HERE. Market is not safe! We have a honking, repeat honking, volatility risk with potential to spike up to $24/25 in a New York Minute. Not hyperbole. Not only might China do a surprise devaluation but derivatives market is clearly in negative gamma territory and as I have warned loudly all week: breadth and net selling has been outsized!!

Regardless of the macro trigger, WHEN we get/stay/close > 4.333% 10Y, we will have outsized volatility so protect your longs as I still fully expect to tag $4K by 9/30/23. I see it more clearly than when I was recommending mid-July and warning late July.

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