Surprise... REAL GDP Contraction ALERT
Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts. —Albert Einstein
This Fed indicator just did something very alarming... it went negative for only the 3rd time in a decade.
As clients know, I have been tracking this very closely as a better read on economic health than the ones the White House touts, and here’s why:
January 1, 2020: -15.26
April 1, 2020: -31.28
Back in January of 2020, this Fed indicator printed a surprising and deeply-negative value just before the Covid Crash started Sunday, February 23, 2020 with a gap down that continued peak-to-trough for -35.41%.
Maybe it’s nothing, but I noticed the weakness in this Fed indicator a few months ago noting it went negative EXACTLY on the start of the US government shutdown October 1st (which lasted until November 12th) during which employment and inflation data was not collected.
Fast forward to today…
