Strategic Patience Is Needed
Let’s start with the good news…
Now, let’s get to the bad news…
Blood Red Moon
Strategic Patience Is Needed
So What’s The Trade?
Bounce Then Trounce
Let’s start with the good news…
Team USA beat Canada to win the Olympics gold medal in hockey today.
The last time the US won the gold was in 1980 against the Soviet Union in the town of my birth, Lake Placid NY! Russia had been on a streak, winning 5 of the previous 6 Winter Olympics, and were seen as unbeatable. The US-Russia (USSR then) were firmly engulfed in a Cold War after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, complete with sanctions and boycotts. Carter was President. Then Reagan came in and demanded to a willing Gorbachev to tear down the Berlin Wall in 1989, and by 1991, the US and Russia had signed the START agreement and President Bush had restored their most-favored-nation trade status.
I reference this period of history as symbolic of how US overcame a perceived evil (USSR) to win back the glory of being #1.
Fast forward, US has its own Cold War waging against Canada, for no other reason than Trump hates Carney and feels entitled to annex our North American neighbor to make it our 52nd state because they have resources he wants to acquire from his imperialist perch.
Sadly, we are not governed by serious people. And the White House bully tactics that Trump promotes only demean US.
Thank God we have citizens who love America regardless.
“I love the USA” is the first sentence out of this young man’s bleeding mouth moments after he won the scoring goal in overtime for Team USA. Jack Hughes embodied the thrill of winning, doubling down with the spirit of representing a country that has achieved a great honor, saying, “I’m so proud to be American today.”
In Team Canada’s defense, they were the better skilled team as Team US was clearly outplayed with 26 shots on goal against Canada’s 42. If it had not been for our hockey goalie, Hellebuyck, there wouldn’t have been a chance for overtime and that winning goal.
But as I often say in trading and with overtime in hockey: “LUCKY OR GOOD!”
Now, let’s get to the bad news…
In the same way that I became obsessed with the Epstein file reveal and the endemic, entrenched massive fraud, that also includes sex trafficking - both continuing to be covered up by Trump and his law-breaking administration - I have been transfixed on news related to US escalation of military assets in the Middle East in support of Israel’s demand we bomb Iran.
I could write a lot about both of these topics, because “Policies Dictate Price” as I have long held as a macro tru-ism. Instead, I choose to post my outrage on X on both topics, and relegate this space to doing my job for clients which is to stay laser-focused on market direction, sector rotation, stock selection and warn when macro event risks can trigger volatility. Iran IS a macro event risk that bears watching.
With that, here’s why I warned months ago that I saw volatility emerging March-to-May timeframe, and also why I repeated past few months that the Growth-To-Value rotation that I sized up in NOVEMBER would likely peter out in FEBRUARY, and that IN LIEU OF SECTOR ROTATION THERE WILL BE VOLALITY:
