Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
STILL NOT SAFE
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STILL NOT SAFE

My Recession Call Podcast. This Past Week - That Worked! More Bearish Charts! Goldman Knew. Time to Talk BOJ Rate Hike & VIX Risk.

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Samantha LaDuc
Jan 12, 2025
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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
STILL NOT SAFE
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Weekend Listening!

Reminder: Hans and I met Wednesday after the close. Here is the recording:
Macro-To-Micro Options Power Hour / Jan 8, 2025 Trading A Market In Repair

And

Thursday I was interviewed by Jason Burack - who picked the podcast title not me!
US Recession Risk In 2nd Half of 2025 Is Very High, Trump Will Cause Stagflation

I did say that I made my call on his show back in JUNE 2024 that recession risk would be pulled forward END of 2025 - but I said then and again in this podcast, "regardless of who won the election".

Anyway, he put in the TRUMP-part for better click-through rate I guess. Whatevah. His house; his rules. I got most of my point across I hope.

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This Past Week - That Worked!

The 10Y2Y US Treasury yield curve steepened to a positive 42 bps - its highest reading since May 2022. The yield curve has "bear steepened," meaning the 10-year yield has risen faster than the 2-year yield, as I warned client it would Dec 12th - quickly approaching my +45 'price target' before I suspect some kind of flattening/intervention.

Friday, jobs were hot, which pulled forward not only Fed pause (which I already expected for Jan FOMC), but the strong payroll print combined with UMICH sentiment survey pulled forward inflation risks and removal of future Fed rate cuts. The result: perceived good economic news on falling unemployment rate to 4.1% - even though hiring has notably slowed and full-time jobs have been shredded in size this year - triggered higher yields and dollar that triggered selling in equities.
Oh, and the spiking crude move added insult to injury.

Luckily, I had all of that laid out for clients well in advance.

As posted under #trading-room-notes Friday - where you can go to Review Next Week Price Targets:

Clearly, my internal intermarket analysis - from “DEC 27TH, 2024 - UNDERCURRENT OF WEAKNESS PERSISTS” to “JAN 8TH - WHY I DON'T TRUST THIS MARKET” were good warnings as was my “DEC 12TH - YIELDS ABOUT TO BREAK HIGHER” to my “JAN 6TH - MARKETS IN REPAIR” where I warned premarket Monday: “above 4.7%, equities lose their "goldilocks" zone.”

  • USD pushed above my 109.30 resistance (110.78 overshoot).

  • The 10Y yield even tagged my stated PT of 4.79%, which is exactly what I expected to cause more equity disturbance. Above, even if briefly, will usher in more selling unless Plunge Protection Team softens them down.

  • The 10Y2Y yield curve bear steepened closer to my +45 (+42 hit so far)

  • Crude oil pushed into 77.80 PT (with 78/79 overshoot)

  • Bonds dumped, as I warned and Equities got hit, on cue.

The trifecta of higher dollar, yields and oil, as I have been calling, on a “waterfall” breadth destruction under the surface - STILL, which started December 2nd at 11AM as tracked daily for you and is why I said Wed: “I DON’T TRUST THIS MARKET AS FAR AS I CAN THROW IT.”

INTERMARKET REVIEW JAN 8: WHY I DON'T TRUST THIS MARKET (My 5 most bearish charts)

Net selling was slow to get going this morning, but I had “no green shoots” and as such why I gave lower short PTs for you to press short. In fact, we closed poorly - across my indicators, so unless the PPT wants to appear, expect weakness next week.

UPGRADE TO PRO OR JOIN US LIVE AT LADUCTRADING.COM

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