Still Choppy

Chase summary in part:

Market still remains choppy with the gap at 4575 remaining as the magnet, 4541.60 is the support where we exactly got defended when Waller (Fed head speaker) came out and said he can see a reason for Fed to cut with inflation continuing to fall.
Market LOVES the idea of a soft landing, but market needs a trigger for sell off which it currently doesn’t have with volume and breadth firm.
USDJPY continues to roll over supporting GLD higher.
If GLD doesn’t get tapped down soon, large selling could be possible in nasdaq ( long miners, short nasdaq next pair trade)

Here is the part I posted in #chase-ideas I want to emphasize:

I see a sharp pullback potential AFTER SPX HITS 4575 - likely by EOD Wednesday.Did ya see VIX spike 11% intraday then get hammered back down?
I call this period "crazy ivan" and it is indicative of PRICE INSTABILITY.Puts are wicked cheap and Thursday Jobless Claims likely surprises on the high side.Yield Curve Steepened bigly today with 10Y potential bounce on 4.36 as headwind for equities.
USD broke below 103.38 support (see charts) I gave past few weeks. A snap back inside that is also a headwind for equities.This is going to seem a strange thing to say, but I'm going to say it:
"THEY" do not want spiking higher gold!
I've observed this pattern before: Spiking higher gold can trigger the forced-selling of Nasdaq.
So that gold THEN softens/falls.Humor me, okay? Just be careful chasing gold up here when equities roll over.
In the meantime, falling USD and USDJPY with USDCNH is the reason for gold/silver/miners advance.

Luckily, silver was already a rec'd long above SLV 21.50 with my gold miners bullish percent index triggering almost 2 wks now.
But GLD over $186 is the one to watch.
Last time gold crossed above its 50/100D was in December 2022. Continuous contract Gold squeezed $150 in a month back then UNTIL Nasdaq in particular rolled over.

And given equity flows are petering out, it's a good time to be on alert for an equity short.

Goldman's 'flow guru' Scott Rubner issued a note today, saying that 'there are less than 5 trading sessions left of peak-flow-of-fund demand for 2023.
After that, pain trades will shift to the downside, no longer upside.'

Add to that:

Net leverage at 1-year highs Hedge fund net leverage in the US just hit 100%-tile on Morgan Stanley Prime Brokerage data.

Craig and I will unpack all of this and more tomorrow on our MacroEDGE Webinar after market close. This will be posted Thursday!

BLACK FRIDAY ALL WEEK!

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