Still A Bear
"This market wants to flush so badly."I said loudly and often this morning - before we flushed.
SPX short PT was 4240 when 4270. Revised to 4232.43 with overshoot to 4218.70 as PT today.
QQQ short PT was 357.50 when 359. Revised to 355 as PT today. BOTH HIT.Spotgamma just said:
"if we are going to try and bounce today i like this time and price: ~11:45 and SPX 4225. Pretty healthy number of 0DTE calls laid out (green line) into this decline to provide some lift."I would add that SVXY has had 5 consecutive wkly red closes so a bounce wouldn't surprise me given it is tagging the 30W, but remember: crashes also start from oversold.
And VIX is firmly above its 200D and 10/21W crossover, intonating higher over the next few weeks/maybe months.Big picture, I am still a bear AND I have shown you why from my #Intermarket-tells that I still do not see a capitulatory low. De-risking ahead of the weekend given all the escalation threats in the Middle East and Russia make a lot of sense. Clearly I have no idea if weekend itself is calm and we gap up on Monday, but I can see from a CHASE perspective that net selling is still in full swing since Wed morning. From a SWING perspective, the breadth destruction under the surface is nothing less than stunningly bearish since August 1st when net selling also started.
GOLD continues to surprise with its war vibes. I mentioned SLV is 'undervalued' relative to gold on industrial metal/economy ties, and gold/silver miners have a beta to market weakness so harder to spike with gold BUT once you see silver and miners outperforming, you know we are in a much bigger problem.
I don't trust the 'digital gold' rally of bitcoin at all. Most all of those miners have ignored or quickly sold off on any ramp. I think it is a tell of a bigger reversal coming in BTCUSD and proxies. With that, I don't see how NVDA would hold up with both crypto AND nasdaq 100 selling off.There aren't a lot of places for 'safety'.
Even the USD looks like it may succumb to selling and that would surprise if it happens WITH equities selling.
Yields continue higher on any mention of Biden/Congress asking for money for foreign wars, as if to really call them out. With that, I am hard-pressed to see any bottom in bonds - TLT, ZB, ZN - until the US can get its fiscal house in order OR we pull forward recession (or war) as a rotation in to bonds and out of Mag6 mega-cap tech. It was Magnificent 7 until TSLA sold off post earnings, as expected ;-)In the same way SEDG cut guidance and sold off 30%, there are MANY small cap players who I see doing the same this year.
In the same way, TSLA disappointed and sold off 12% since earnings, there are folks still hiding out in NYFANG that will sell on any disappointment.TNX needs to get/stay < 4.88 intraday to even start to fade.
It is still way strong.
My big tell next: DXY gets back below 105.77 and market still sells off.
That is going to mess with people.Again, the market wants to flush so badly.
Pls don't be complacent.
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