Stabilization Into A Trap
Searching For A Bottom
Another Trump Ultimatum
Mechanical Flows Waiting For Gamma Flip
The New Macro-Driven Volatility Regime
Earnings - Opportunity or As Good As It Gets
The Week Ahead: Inflation Threatens
“Hell is empty and all the devils are here.” — William Shakespeare
Searching For A Bottom
Iran is rejecting Trump’s latest ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8pm ET Tuesday or face “Hell.”
Ceasefire hopes continue to tease markets.
That, and more ships are NEGOTIATING their own passage through the Strait of Hormuz directly with Iran.
My March 30th read to clients:
“so the JPM collar pin of 6475 for end-of-day Tuesday ** could ** help to pull up markets to relieve the VIX backwardation we are in”
March 31st premarket:
“I see a wee bit of stability starting potentially through next week (April 7th-ish).”
Then April 1st at noon:
“The stabilization I predicted for next week came early in the form of positioning flows that marked up the tape into quarter-end.
I wish I could say I was as bullish for Q2, but I am not.
Stabilization is a fancy word for sideways with wide swaths of volatility to frustrate bulls and bears alike.”
And today, April 6th: Stabilization Into A Bull Trap.
Another Trump Ultimatum
Markets are drifting higher - as Flows Over Fundamentals are still in play, but bulls are gullible to ceasefire hopes - while the newest threat approaches Tuesday night with Trump’s latest deadline to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges.
But... US-Israel has already bombed Iran’s largest bridge on Easter Sunday!
And they are currently carrying out intense bombing on Iran’s South Pars petrochemical complex, which accounts for 85% of the their production!
Iran shoots back: If the United States launched a mass attack on Iranian energy infrastructure, the *entire* region will plunge into darkness.
Translation: There is no ceasefire or de-escalation in this fog of war that puts markets in one - just lasting damage done to energy infrastructure, energy markets, and allies’ trust in US ‘security guarantees’.
