Setup for a Hawkish Rally, BUT...

Baseline bet post FOMC:

We bounce into ~$4300 then reverse lower
OR
We just move lower. $SPX
I give odds of 50-50 this week.

If Fed raises .25bp, markets likely swoon as that would be disappointment because the Fed has always done what was implied by the market.
If Fed raises .50bp, markets await Powell at 2:30 to discuss June rate hike and chop.
If Fed raises .75bp, markets likely rally sharply before fading.

But... here's my Big Picture issue:

$QQQ has triggered a "flash crash" warning in my system very few times since 2018:OCT 15, 2018
MARCH 10, 2020
JAN 20, 2022

It triggered again: APRIL 12, 2022 and again April 26.

So... I'm holding my swing shorts + crash puts with baseline bet: lows aren't in.

The last time the Fed hiked, the market found a short-term bottom.
But it wasn't "the" bottom. Keep in mind: internal damage in breadth is still severe - on any timeframe.