September 4, 2025 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades

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Samantha LaDuc

Sep 06, 2025

PART 1: Premarket Review / Rant — Focus on S&P 500 Fair Value

Fair Value / Historical Context:
- S&P expectations of 4% Q2 growth were smashed: printed 11% and is big part of reason why SPX ramped / and is at high multiples.
- PE ratios range from 14 to 26: 14 at 2020 low; 24 at 1999 highs. Average forward multiple over last 10yrs at 18X.
- Current consensus 2025/2026 earnings estimates are $268/304 per share. Grid shows lower/higher estimates and corresponding S&P 'fair value' used by macro/fundamental analysts to determine if market is over/under/fairly valued.
- SPX at 6500 trades above long-term fair value (24X) vs historical (18X). Compared to the 2000 bubble, current multiples are stretched! But... supported by liquidity, mega-cap AI narratives, loose fiscal and monetary easing, also fiscal dominance and falling value in US dollar.
- But the index is also overvalued by 16 percent using the 2025 estimate of $268/share. That's $5400 area.
- DataTrek estimates: The S&P is right around its fair value (within 4 – 5 percent) just now if the index earns either the expected $304/share or 10 percent more in 2026. If the S&P only shows 2 percent earnings growth next year ($268/share this year, $274/share next year), fair value is 15 percent BELOW today’s close.
- Earning Risk = Volatility Risk: if liquidity wobbles or employment market shocks, valuations will suffer and equities will be de-risked.

PART 2: Macro Matters & Intermarket Review

Market Chop:
- Expecting chop into the Sept 17 FOMC. Seasonal Sep/Oct weakness challenged if corporate bond issuance delights.
- Thursday calling for green close - just like I did Tues & Wed; red close on Friday.
Liquidity:
- No deterioration in liquidity yet: Fed liquidity > concerns around RRP drains (“bearporn”); corp buybacks until 9/14, passive flows to eventually slow on job losses, Q2 earnings beating handily keeps equities bid until Q3/4 disappointment.
- CTA flows ~100% long and now reducing into selling ($70B). Dealers’ positioning adds to chop risk. Follow Jason's channel for daily updates: volland-dealer-positioning
- Internal indicators also holding up under surface - with my rate differential indicating weakness for Friday.
Labor Market:
- Expecting labor market weakness: NFP Friday & Job Revisions Sept 9th, but that is to be offset by rising rate cut odds. Short-term bullish but not long-term. It will pull recession risk forward as warned repeatedly and often.
- Also why market chops: Weak revisions could accelerate growth scare → rate cut hopes but CPI risk (expected hotter) will complicate Fed decision.
Gold Run (Parabolic Trend Now):
- Gold and miners remain the leadership trade, but parabolic behavior = risk of digesting behavior for last-in-first-out traders.
- GDX: Pushing toward 67 (2011 ATH zone). This was my price target from June 3rd client post - 3 months ago.
- Junior Miners have the most to run (NGD, EQX, CDE, HL, IAG, EGO, SAND): Breakouts above critical long-term 66 MONTHLY support for GDXJ is key.
- Warning: at GDX 67, watch for trap-long/liquidation if parabola fails.
- Coppock Curve (Gold): Extended >0 consolidations → parabolic thrusts.
Market Bounce (Day 3):
- Markets stabilizing with QQQ gap fills, and MAG7 strength intact.
- Bias: Green close today. “Day 3 bounce” supported by option flows, net buying under surface, and breadth not breaking.
- Friday red close.
MAG7 Ratio:
- Still holding Dec highs, no deterioration. Strong expansion candle in latest session. Until reversal, tech leadership intact.
Calendar Risks / Catalysts:
- Sept 5: NFP.
- Sept 9: BLS revisions + Apple event (key shake-and-bake date).
- Sept 11: CPI
- Sept 17: FOMC.
- Sept 19: Options expiration
- Last Sept: Corporate bond issuance.
- Oct 1: Gov’t shutdown risk.

PART 3: Stocks & Assets Covered (with Levels)Indexes & Vol

SPY: Green bias today.
QQQ: above 574.44 is bullish; bearish below
VIX: 15.50 - 17.50 ping pong

Metals & Miners

GDX: Watch 67–68 as parabola risk zone.
FCX: Key >46 bullish; looks good to 49 as swing PT.

Healthcare / Biotech

Hospitals (HCA, THC): Strong continuation.
BSX: Gorgeous trend. Above 107 wkly close = breakout after all of 2025 consolidation & repeated attempts.
AZN: LT uptrend intact since 2017; breakout >87.68; support >78.
XBI/IBB: Momentum >91 / 139.
ISRG: bullish bounce > 449

China ADRs: News of China tapping down on speculative trading causing weakness.

BABA: still gorgeous monthly chart. Not worried as long as closes > 120 wkly.
JD: Next “BABA.” Needs >32.80 → 35. Must hold >29.
BIDU: finally pushing > 90.45 wkly close; up $10 this week; 101.69 wkly resistance to expect dighestion; gorgeous monthly scoop pattern/trend reversal.
KWEB, FXI, EEM: Still trending well long above 10W EMA

Crypto

BTC: Stable near 110k.
ETH: Cooling after breakout.
SOL: Needs >186. Likely attracts the BTC & ETH buyers next.

Other Themes

SAP / EWG / DB (Germany): Still expecting trend breakdown/reversion to mean.
WYNN, LYS, MLCO (Casinos): Rec'd long 8/21-8/29 when I warned I expected last Fri to 'be it' for this run. They pulled back PERFECTLY on cue.

Client Requests:

HIMS: Great bounce off 200D Tues into 55D PT with 52.72 PT. Lots of overhang there so tough to get through.
C (Citibank): not safe swing short until breaks 90.

PART 4: Charts of Interest

DataTrek S&P Fair Value Grid - know what you own.
Gold: Coppock Curve as posted last month that it was consolidating & preparing for its next breakout move higher.
BONUS: MSTR: May be added to SPY (unusual option activity) - found after closed live trading room
Tariff Appeal Case: Supreme Court decides whether to take case Sept 29th
Expected Q3/4 Earnings Growth Slowdown: MAG 7 vs SPX493