September 30, 2025: Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades
UNLOCKED - SO YOU CAN SEE THIS ISN'T A ONE TRADE/DAY OR WEEK SERVICE BUT A FULL VIEW FROM MACRO TO MICRO.
I’ve got two for you - A Micro & A Macro !!
Month End Spies Higher
Look Mom, “6950!”
Premarket Morning Rant On Repeat
AND
Consumer Lending Sector Is In Trouble
Falling Credit Quality Trumps Falling Credit Spreads
Systemic Shock Could Expose Private Credit’s Broad Reach, Growing Risk
Not IF but WHEN…
Plus…
KEY TRADING THEMES & UPDATES
Consumer Lending Selling Triggered
I reviewed the Sept 15th consumer lending stocks I posted on watch for breakdown:
AFRM, UPST, CVNA, ALLY, SOFI - Not ready to short consumer lending stocks but on 1st signs of recession risk, these are the go tos.
Then last week, Auto lending, consumer credit, and Asset Backed Securities hit the skids on Tricolor & First Brand company bankruptcies. Today, there was a sea of continued red which made for great chasing short - with SOFI dropping $2 on cue & CVNA $20 (and just starting).
Banks also weakened, with a nice short in Citibank (congrats client Jose!!) where I expect 97 from 103, and more hedges in XLF from OCT 52P to MAR 54P
Healthcare Popped
Another sector rotation of size - that Dr. Alex alerted to just before I closed my trading room - was the healthcare / pharma companies getting relief on Trump press conference statements:
ABBV, THC, HCA & MCK are already in blue skies - as covered often as Trend longs. JNJ is a $1 below ATH - missed entirely, sorry.
XLV bounced off its 200W into its 200D and now needs to get/stay above to move back into 143.42 to really be trusted, but it definitely looks more constructive with a wkly close > 139.
Tech Reversion To Mean Still In Play
ORCL continues short post earnings into its gap fill 243.39 from $100 higher ;-)
GOOGL continues short from 9/22 (congrats contributor Mike!) to fill daily gap fill at 242.08 with 235.76, 224.79, 211.68 potential in time.
Not Triggered Yet
SPOT & NFLX short - on break of 100D EMA to 652 & 1107 respectively.
RCL & DB short - on break of 10W EMA
JD & RIVN long - on 200D & 100W respectively (but I’m not waiting on JD to trigger because when it does, it will look like BIDU & BABA).
Some Warnings
VXN is poised for higher as it sits atop its 10/21W in a scoop pattern with dispersion trades getting hit as Growth:Value ratio weakens.
TLT has some upside positions coming in hot - one of which is a JAN 90X95 that could work if recession risk is pulled forward & folks rotate out of stocks into higher-yielding bonds.
VLO, MPC, PBF as Bob & I warned Mon are due a pause after an outsized swing long run, and nearing end of hurricane season & as global oil demand falls with prices.
Govt Shutdown is almost guaranteed, even if they kick the can a few days/week, and that means employment & inflation data will not be released but 950K federal employees could be.
New Swing Long: PTON.
Must stay > 7.74 wkly close/trigger/support.
Pushing > 8.88 brings 9.87, 10.90, 12.70, 14.36 with 18 overshoot.
Option Tactic Ideas:
Stock at $9 with NOV 8C bot / DEC ‘26 11C sld - gives flexibility into EPS 10/30
JAN ‘26 10X13CS financed by sold 7P - for pennies, but will likely need to be rolled to Apr once price moves into 11. There isn’t the depth there now.
Reminder:
MACRO-TO-MICRO OPTIONS POWER HOUR THIS WEDNESDAY AFTER THE CLOSE with Hans options-mentor-hans