In this short clip from Live Trading Room (Mar 20, 2026), Samantha LaDuc explains that semiconductors, gold, and broader liquidity trends appear significantly overextended after a multi-year rally, raising the risk of mean reversion and a broader market rollover.
She highlights weakening support from macro factors such as energy and liquidity, suggesting that key sectors, such as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), may have already peaked without a geopolitical resolution, pointing to increased downside risk ahead.
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Great read!
Respectively, one counter argument is that, there’s a non-zero chance the liquidity crisis and exploding 10Y rate warrant an emergency rate cut. That kills two birds with one stone - 1) help finance the war 2) calm the market (kicking the can down the road). I do see a case where GLD surprises to the upside in this regime (though I have to say it is less likely than FED doing nothing at all and your thesis plays out).