Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 11/21/24
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#trading-room-summaries
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary
SORRY FOR DELAY - I HAD TO PREPARE FOR A 3PM PPT ON THE TRUMP TRADE FOR THE SYNERGY CONFERENCE. I WILL POST THAT VIDEO WHEN WE UPLOAD IT.$NVDA did turn out to be a ‘premium seller’s dream’ as I warned yday when I saw the concentration of ITM calls sold = protection. Hans and I discussed this thesis & technique in our Tues #chase-live-huddle and Wed Macro-to-Micro Options Power Hour. I said “max pain $140, likely pin Friday at $150”. Seems like that is working ;-)
So is $DDOG - rec’d Tues, it has moved nicely. Next I presented: $ESTC $CFLT $MDB
$SNOW was Archna #archnas-advanced-options & Client’s Tim’s trade since $110, gapping above $130 post earnings today into 172! Like wow. The SAAS reacceleration trade continues.
$AFRM continues - $UPST ready to reset higher after digesting big earnings move?
$CLS electronic component play rec’d at $63 is now $93.
$TGTX biotech rec’d in May and again July 11th after lots of HF sponsorship getting involved in the name is now pushing to get above $36 ATH. Txs Alex! #kentons-corner-of-biopharma.
$LMND was rec’d by Tiffany #tiffs-gamma-flow beginning of Nov (with ROOT) and has rocketed from 20 to 50 in under a month.
NAT GAS plays gapped up - just did a whole review this week on this theme.
$BTCUSD is still moving into $130-135K PT (from mid-Oct call) as $MARA recovers nicely after its expected back-n-fill.
$MSTR tagged an interim high PT of 529.87 which I warned live today was resistance before it turned sharply lower and dumped 31% peak to trough, creating a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart, erasing but only 2 days of profits and bouncing off the 8D. THIS LOOKS JUST LIKE SMCI FEB ‘24 when I timed the interim top on a Friday with a lotto that made 10X that day, at the same time I said it wouldn’t surprise me one bit for MSTR t to continue higher before it reverses lower for good. I have never liked SMCI as clients know, but ponzis are tradable!! MSTR BTC count as such. https://samanthaladuc.com/p/how-the-option-market-brought-down?r=1nwzxc&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
$GOOGL chase short near open was really good: From 174 down to 164, the news on DOJ breakup of its Chrome search was enough for me to call the 200D as PT. It tagged perfectly before bouncing.
Despite the escalation in Russia/Ukraine, the White House is quiet. Matt Gaetz has withdrawn and Trump hasn’t announced a Treasury Secretary (none of them are qualified for an industrial renaissance so I assume he will pick the die-hard loyalist who supports tariffs and devaluation of the dollar.)
There is buying under the surface, and breadth is fine for now as VIX stays controlled.
USD is rising into 107 and bonds are still not ready to bounce. EURUSD + GBPUSD are very weak and USDJPY looks ready to fall with EURJPY way ahead of it.
Rithika's Chase Summary
Market relatively sideways despite GOOGL antitrust issues
IWM over 232 we push to 235, 238, 240
BTCUSD 98 tag, 100k psychological level; swing target 130K expect some digestion here but
VIX below 19 is market bullish, above is bearish
Breadth underneath turning higher
Advance decline sideways big picture
UNG 15 tag, trend line could act as resistance
EQT next swing target is 50.3
NVDA 150 approaching which is the call wall, if above can see 153, 155, 158
SNOW gapping above target pushing into 164.76 next; can expect profit taking as its moved in size next is 168
MDB above 310 we have 317, 323, 330
MCD pushing down into 279.50 target under 292
GOOGL below 172 coming down into 168, 166; 166 likely has a bounce
MSTR 529 target tagging above 479, 550 next then digestion; 440 gap filled likely stabilizes, 400 next support
DDOG 140 tag next is 145
MARA 25 tag next is 28, 30
TSLA above 347, we have 356, 368 call spreads better in case of volatility
NET needs over 100 for 105, 110 in time 125
LLY under 750 comes back to 700, 675
AVGO below 164 comes down to 160, 156.5
SMCI holds over 27 target 30
AFRM 65 tag, 67 tag hold above 62.77
Michael's Trading Room Summary
NOV 21, 2024 AM
MAG7 - Still under that 132 level that Sam is looking for; still under the YTD high made in July.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Above 290; holding the 275 / 300 channel.
IWF:IWD - Range continues from 2.00 to 2.05; channel of chop. Closed red yesterday but is gapped up from the close.
INTERMARKET
T2104 - extended; trying to scoop higher on daily (may be a false flag). they are still in it.
T2126 - Sideways on Weekly.
WTI CRUDE - Breakout above yesterdays high gives traders a chance at 70.00$ this morning; gold up w/ crude up likely over "war fears"
GOLD (futures) - Breakout above yesterdays high gives traders a chance at 2680 today; in premarket trading gold is up more than o.50% while crude is up 1.5%
Nat Gas - Another +4% move today; the big breakout of yesterday continues; proxies are also continued longs. Needs to stay above 3.40$ daily.
Bit Coin - Above 97k in premarket trading; proxies are also up this morning. Still looking for 130 / 135.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - Stalled under 107; that seems to be the key.
USDJPY - 156 / 153 channel (D); broke under yesterdays lows in premarket trading. Still up 2.4% on the month.
BONDS
TLT - 89.50 /91 channel; yesterdays gap down ended with price closing above it's open but below Tuesdays range. This morning price is where it was at the close yesterday; nearly no change at all premarket. Bullish on "war vibes"
TNX - back below 4.4% (D)
10/2 spread - continues to hold the sideways range just above the zero line; looks to be easing lower (at 0.094% this morning).
INDEX
SPY - 591.68 is the level to trade against; above is bullish.
IWM over 232 we push to 235, 238, 240
QQQ - gap filled. Break 497 to get into 492 area (H).
CHASE
AVGO below 164 comes down to 160, 156.5
AFRM 65 tag, 67 tag hold above 62.77
BTCUSD 98 tag, 100k psychological level.
DDOG 140 tag next is 145
EQT next swing target is 50.3
GOOGL below 172 coming down into 168, 166 | GOOGL 166 likely gets a bounce
IWM over 232 we push to 235, 238, 240
LLY under 750 comes back to 700, 675
MARA 25 tag next is 28, 30
MCD pushing down into 279.50 target under 292
MSTR 550 tag and digesting let it settle and has more room to the upside with bitcoin \ MSTR 529 target tagging above 479, 550 next after digesting
MDB above 310 we have 317, 323, 330
NET needs over 100 for 105, 110 in time 125
NVDA 150 approaching which is the call wall, if above can see 153, 155, 158
SNOW gapping above target pushing into 164.76 next; can expect profit taking as its moved in size | SNOW 168.80 likely taps it
TSLA above 347, we have 356, 368 call spreads better in case of volatility
UNG 15 tag, trendline could act as resistance
HONORABLE MENTIONS
APP - parabolic
ARM - has some profit taking.
BA - still good if it can hold.
DDOG - the next software play.
GOOGL - news knocked it back.
IWM over 232 we push to 235, 238, 240
LLY - Sure to hit 672
MNDY - ok.
META - Sure to hit 544
MCD - Sure to hit 279
MSTR - 529.81 (W) a level to watch. Tagged 550 hourly; back under 500 now this morning.
MARA - going to behave. Slow to launch. Good right now; Above 25.00 hourly. Not worried above this one. Be patient.
NVDA - beat top & bottom line; congrats. Call Wall 150 | Max Pain 140. Rate of Growth is slowing. Could "pin" at 150 by Friday. Looking for chips to base & move higher now that earnings are past. Awesome.
PLTR - ok
SYM - ok.
SMH - 272 still on the table.
SMCI - wont' know for days still (on the delisting).
SNOW - congrats if you stayed in this; earning blow-up. touching 161 on the hourly. Above the 100(W) moving hour now. A freak of nature. 168.80 pt & then digesting. Down slopping 200-day will be an issue. Outlyers revert w/ velocity. Selling calls on this makes sense.
SQ - still fine.
TSLA - bullish; could do a call spread since it is so extended from the mean. 345 / 360 perhaps
UNG - chase worked; Stay above 14.95 (monthly).
-- -- -- NAT GAS - Possible Sector Rotation Plays - Continues to Perform well.
AROC - extended but has a closer base. nat gas play.
AR - in play;
CNX - extended. (extremely). nat gas play.
CRK - another nat gas play.
EQT - nat gas play.
ET - hot; has some call buying. another gas play
FCG - like it above 28.65(W) - thats the key.
KGS - a freak of nature. Another nat gas play.
KMI - another nat gas play
LNG - nat gas play.
RRC - another nat gas play.
UNG - 15.00(W) ... big level to get above. Has a down-slopping 200-day MA. Don't like this one.
WMB - another nat gas play
IGV Theme (SASS re-acceleration)
New ones added to this theme
CFLT - SASS re-acceleration
ESTC - another SASS acceleration
MDB - has not played yet. Still has to get above bollinger band and monthly ...
Sam's Previous callouts in this space ....
DASH - SASS
DOCU - SASS
TWLO -SASS
TEAM - SASS
PYPL - SASS
SQ - SASS
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