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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
Yesterday, Fed's pause with promises, still, of 3 rate cuts in 2024 (and 2025) cause USD to dump and gold/equities to rally hard.
This morning:
Swiss National Bank, China and Brazil just cut. Mexico next?
USD is bid as indices digest and gold is dumped.
2Y10Y Yield Curve is steepening. But for how long...Big Picture I am still a USD bear and Commodities bull - food, precious metals, industrial metals/miners. Big Picture I am still bullish indices - as posted in January:
SPX TO 5340
QQQ TO 472
IWM TO 220
But into Friday and EOM, I see some short-term volatility with VIX bouncing off 12.40, so a good time to take care!
Bounce in the dollar and the yields could cause this
Oil rejected the 83 level
Breadth still strong under the surface
Nothing bearish yet
Gold coming down on a strong dollar
Pot stocks likely make a higher low and get defended, mid tier tech also has to base and continue higher
JWN pushing 19.85 then 20.3 then 21
GES short interest really kicked in post earnings!
GPS really should digest 28.48ARM over 136.44 can see 140,150
AMZN potential long target 188.85 above 180
DKNG expected breakout above trigger 45.29 worked with 47.48/48.82 next
LU rec'd at 2.80 last week hit 4.80 on earnings.
NVO coming back down to 122
LLY below 764.24 we have 750,742
MU below 111.65 we have 107, intraday pivot 107 further selling
COIN above 270 can see 275,282 stop: 268
CPNG needs above 19.06 for 21.31
SQ over 83 into 89.9
PYPL above 66 into 68,71
Michael's Trading Room Summary
MAR 21, 2024 AM
MAG7 - gapped up this morning in the pre-market strongly. Closed at highs yesterday & into blue sky this morning.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Back below 275; this is inverse the S&P so if it is weak and going lower that is good - like a tailwind
IWF:IWD - Gapped up this morning; closed higher 2-days in a row... maybe today becomes the third. Sitting at 1.93 premarket. Expecting a "petering out" of growth by EOW.
Intermarket
T2100 - very bullish.
T2104 - They are Net Buying. Likely see selling into Friday
T2123 - very bullish.
T2126 - Very bullish. Watching for a FBFF - but has been sideways many weeks ... so this breakout is very bullish.
WTI Crude - 83 daily resistance held; Getting tapped down below 82 - above 83 would be drama. Rolled back over. Possible H&S as weakness.
GOLD (futures) - broke above 2200 & has kept it so far. Anything above 2164.78is going to be very bullish.
Nat Gas - nothing
Bit Coin - rallied back above 65k to close at the highs yesterday; down slightly this morning but has rallied up from the globex lows.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - large gap down - premarket below 103. "Dumped" yesterday. This is soooo bullish for the market's that it's bearish. Still in a chop phase. At some point this year we'll roll over & break under 100.00$.
USDJPY - holding above 151 daily after falling below yesterdays low & running back up again to yesterdays close.
EURJPY - Climbing solid.
USDMXN - Mexico is likely next with announcing a cut. USDMXN ... kinda on the ground. Not really great looking yet. (Maybe EWW would be a better chart).
USDCHF - it liked the Swiss National cut; moving higher clearly.
USDCNH - look at it fly. Swiss National Just started cutting.
Bonds
TLT - gap up this morning r2g; trying to hold above 93. 92.40 is hourly short PT.
TNX - broke below yesterdays low earlier in the session but has rallied up from the mornings low and back inside yesterdays range near 4.25%. Bearish & that is supportive of equities.
ZN (10Y) - tagged that 114 resistance daily; it held as resistance so far.
ZT (2Y) -strong close yesterday - closed at highs of day. This morning has seen a fade back from that yesterdays high; after trying to breakout and run higher.
Index
SPX - closed above 5200; closed at HOD in blue sky. Still Trend Long; still Swing Long; Breaking 5249 offers a gap fill to 5226 hourly. (Mikey warned in the Morning Briefing that a short today "just because" we ran far yesterday is a bad idea)
SPY - closed above 520; closed at HOD in blue sky. Likely Soften into Friday
IWM - this was Sam's bet back in Jan (doing better than expected was her bet). Still like it. Craig is short.
QQQ - 472 PT.
VIX could bounce into 13.38 before lower causing some shake and bake in the market
Chase
ARM over 136.44 can see 140,150
CPNG needs above 19.06 for 21.31
COIN above 270 can see 275,282 stop: 268
GPS pushing into 28.48
JWN pushing 19.85 then 20.3
LU manage risk post earnings
LLY below 764.24 we have 750,742
MU below 111.65 we have 107, intraday pivot 107 further selling
NVO coming back down to 122
PYPL above 66 into 68,71
SQ over 83 into 89.9
Honorable Mentions
Precious Metals are still doing great. Coal might be coming back into play (from an oversold POV). Steel, Copper, Coal ... What the heck is wrong with coal..?!!?
AMZN - it's doing it. Breaking out again weekly; 188.65 current PT. Daily Bollinger Breakout.
ACN - that is a big dump; trend long may be broken.
ATMU - WOW!
ACM - looks very good. Above 92 weekly
AOS - looks great. Above 82 weekly.
BMY - is super-sizing their underlying lineup; increasing their cancer lineup. Looks good for higher long term.
Bit Coin proxies are very strong. MSTR too - bounce at 21-day.
CRSP - holding 10-week.
CPNG - getting sponsorship for sure.
CHK - anything above 83
COIN - (and likely HOOD too). Big reversal off the 21-day. Very bullish.
$C looks good into earnings but this is where to take some off
CHWY - Sam said she was not bullish & it had a bad earnings. ... so BOOM.
DBA - scary great. Awesome.
DKNG - looks productive & moving higher. Following through; This is in play.
DIS - proxy war continues. Activist Investors. Needs to hold above 113 again.
FXY - keeps getting sold.
GM - added before the "ramp";
GS - sideways finally ended with a big break up.
GES - massive breakout. 29.30 run into 32.00 Very nice.
GPCR - nice "scoop" pattern. Hitting the daily 200-MA / 55-day MA. 42.55 weekly is the level to get above.
GPS - still has not had a red day; this is lit. Crazy. June 30.00 calls - it's going there. Crazy.
GS - really nice breakout above weekly 400.
GOLD - has to get above 200 & stay above the 200-day MA.
GLD - monthly chart is so fantastic. Gap up above monthly, above the 10-week ... just fantastic.
GDX - they are coming for this. So bullish. Above all the moving averages daily. If it can keep above that we'll go higher.
HOOD- nice support & bask up to even
ILMN - still has to base; hold above the 200-day... has a lot of work to do. Get / stay above weekly 147 for a cont long.
IBM - not broken yet.
IPO - breakout on daily / weekly. (XBI also doing fine with XRT and IWM).
IR - a freak of nature; still looking for a pullback. ... but so far .. not yet.
JWN - the news yesterday that Sam caught following through.
LU - Above 5.00 we have the 50-week MA. Massive gap above the 200-day MA.
LTRN - pretty impressive. 9.60 weekly resistance. 7.92 is the channel you are in.
MO - so far it has just moved higher. 45 weekly resistance. Stay above 43.44
MDWD - digesting very nicely. (RNA - and VKTX - still look great & very bullish).
MU - still bullish weekly; hourly short below 111.65 but maybe it's not worth it. ... now looking at a follow-through into 107 area for a chase.
NGD - looks really good. Above 1.62 weekly; it is choppy and low priced & options are poo ... but it's great looking. Very Thin. Keep it above 1.45 daily.
PYPL - added before the "ramp"; update to 71PT.
PHO - (water company) strong choice for a trend. Keep it above 65.00$
PLTR - still has not broke 23.51 even after the CEO sold like 174 million shares.
PNR - just great.
RGTI - former SPAC. Has a great weekly "scoop" pattern. Above 2.28 to really trigger a play. This looks like "GEO" ... kinda a similar chart.
RITM - broke above 11.13 weekly. Breaking out of daily bands. Careful of weekly Bollinger resistance.
SLV - very bullish on this one; 23.84 PT (hit 23.55 hourly in premarket).
SLX - Steel ETF wow.
SQ - back up to 83.
COPX - Hot great.
STLD - Hot - great.
STX - break up through the 55day MA. (WDC typically same moves). Looks good.
TTD - looks better. keep it above 83.50 weekly.
VKTX - news is coming; if that news "is good" then it could put pressure on NVO ... so careful if you are long NVO because that threat is real. (Same with LLY - protect longs because of this).
VLO - 160 has not turned yet; 3-day push very strong. (PBF too .. careful they are extended.).
WDC - 10-week & a reversal... looks good.
WOOD - very bullish weekly chart.
WPM - great recovery & follow-through. Needs to get going but looks great. (So does NEM & so does GOLD).
WTTR - keep it above that 8.70 weekly.
XLE - looks great.
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 3/21/24