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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 4/16/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

Market panicking under the surface
We broke SPX 5111 to trigger short into 5000,
SPY below 503.50 there is airpocket of risk to 500,497.37; no sign of oversold bounce into 505
Net selling continuing to pick up, bounce may not be supported regardless
VIX above 19.29 is market bearish, below we can have a bounce
Lack of liquidity is forcing Bitcoin to sell off
USDJPY approaching 155 dangerous territory
HCC above 62 weekly breakout can test 70,72
COIN below 212 into 206 again, 200
SE above 55.6 next is 57.5,60
CVNA below 72 likely sells slowly into 56.80
UNH stays above 476 can see 480,486, below is bearish can’t be trusted
ANF 110 about to tag. next is 105.81
NVDA below 860 next is 823
GS below 403 back to 400,396.50,394 stop: 405
 AAPL 171.5 tagged next is 167.5
TSLA 155 tagged, market trying to put a bottom but not interested


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Michael's Trading Room Summary

APR 16, 2024 AM

Powell and Jefferson speak today; Powell will speak along side Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem at 1:15 p.m. (eastern).

MAG7 - Below the 10 & 20-day MA. Big red day & closed at the lows. Still in a range (daily) but at the lower end of that range.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Still holding strong above 300; 312 is the next level of interest.

IWF:IWD - big red bar yesterday; back to 1.92 daily. Closed at the lows of the session. Nearing the 10-MA daily.

INTERMARKET

T2100 - gross. weak. Already Broken

T2104 - Broke the 55-day MA. Hit the bollinger daily low. Hit the Dec High. Under the 10-week. Overbought & broken. Net sellilng has not really started yet.

T2123 - Dumped; evening star reversal; likely see the 10-week. Panic under the surface.

T2126 - nice rollover weekly. Closed below the 10-week. Could see a bounce here. Need the 10/21 to roll over.

WTI CRUDE - Channel from 85 to 87.50 daily. Chopping within that zone.

GOLD (futures) - Still holding under 2400; still bullish daily / weekly.

Nat Gas - chopping sideways

Bit Coin - down into 62k area with it's proxies also down. Rolled over.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - made it near 106.50 before fading back. Still elevated; still above 106. Firm. Strong relative to other currencies. Above 105 is a big deal.

USDJPY - Above 154.50 daily.

BONDS

TLT - gapped down again this morning; now near 88.00 daily. 87.93 minor support; still a mess.

TNX - staying firm; cont to rise. Gapped but still inside of yesterday price. Above 4.688% likely brings panic with it.

ZN (10Y) - still no bounce; cont to peter out on every level. Careful.

ZT (2Y) - still no bounce; cont to peter out on every level. Careful.

INDEX

SPX - broke the 55-day MA. Pushed outside the daily bollinger lows. When we get back above 5081 that will serve as support to fill the gap (5111).

SPY - Could bounce into 508 / 509 area. Why Not. Stay above 503.50 for a move into 510 as a "bounce off support." for shorts - there is 497 daily short PT 496 weekly PT

IWM - 193 weekly PT hit.

BXM - yesterday was solid green in the AM ... Sam said "I don't think so..." Big Change of character. Talking Red; market is not in a good mood.

QQQ - nice pullback. broke the 55-day MA. Pushed outside the daily bollinger lows. 430 daily pt hit; stabilize here is likely. 425 daily gap fill likely. Could bounce off the 430 into 435 area on "turn around Tuesday." 425.70 PT after the bounce.

VIX - up from the lows; holding above 18.44 hourly. the long callout worked; cheers. At resistance weekly; tagged & came back in. Still firm... bollinger opening up. Could see 21 area. Above 19.29 is market bearish. Below that we could have a broader market bounce.

SVXY - gapped up from the lows of yesterday (where it closed).

VXN - hit 23.50 & then let's see if we get a bounce.

CHASE

ANF 110 about to tag. next is 105.81

CVNA below 72 likely sells slowly into 56.80

VIX above 19.29 is market bearish, below we can have a bounce

NVDA below 860 next is 823

QQQ stay above 430 can see 434.65

SPY below 503.50 there is air pocket of risk to 500,497.37

SE above 55.6 next is 60

UNH stays above 476 can see 480, 486

TSLA 160 tagged next is 154.76

HONORABLE MENTIONS

China is not getting defended.

AG - PT 6.61

AA - earnings tomorrow;

ANF - still a great short but hit the 110 PT; likely bounce there before cont lower. Sam spotted some options movement... ANF - 95 puts getting sold and buying 120 / 140 call spread. ... this looks like an earnings play on 05.22.24

AAPL - still not ready to move higher. "Short the rip" market. 165.70 PT.

BAC - getting sold on the bounce.

CI - likely goes under pressure big time.

CVNA - below the 55-day MA. Still testing lower daily BB bands. Testing Weekly 69 support. Stay below 86 weekly. 56.80 likely lower PT.

COIN - at the PT; distribution. Rolled over well Friday & didn't stop. Hit the 55-day MA. Could bounce on that 212 weekly.

DELL - eh ... likely gets hit before NVDA; breaking weekly $111.42 would make it a short.

ENPH - looks like it wants to break support; does not look bullish.

FCX - selling off right at resistance.

FTNT - looks like it wants to roll over.

GS - nice rejection; tried to bounce but failed. Stay below 405 hourly w/ a PT 394 still.

GDX - miners looking tired. Coming back down as yields are rising.

HCC - looks good; weekly "scoop" pattern. About to hit it's head on weekly bollinger / kelts. Stay above 62.50 daily. Could see 72PT weekly or 70PT daily. Thin and options are poor.

JETS - broke the 55-day. moving into the 200-day MA. Could bounce on that 200-day MA. 17.32 PT in time.

MNST - a great short; needs time. Break 52 to do more damage.

NVDA - Break 860 for a move into 823 pt.

NFLX - bouncing on 615.60 supprt; likley breaks it the next time.

PYPL - stay below 67.50 weekly. Testing the 55-day MA. 60 short PT & then we'll see.

PLNT - 57 is gap fill. Below the 200-day MA. Keep it below 63 w/ a 57 or 56 short PT.

RPD - Under the 200-day MA. (PEGA).

STZ - rolling over.

TSLA - 155 PT. Weak. Every bounce getting shorted. Looking for a reversal pattern there.

UNH - better than expected results; that is helping the DOW JONES. Bounced on 200-week; still looks poor. Does not look so good.

XME - coming back down; take care.

XLE - gentle pullback into 21-day.

XLF - great H&S short; really nice.

ZS - sad; cont lower.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.