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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 5/23/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

SPX hit my 5340 + immediately reversed!
NVDA hit my 1025 but didn't! still going at 1045.
VIX had a little bump at 11.80 but not a big deal.
Services PMI triggered bounce in USD + 10Y yield, which translates to "Inflation is Sticky", but it's one month. Need more for Fed to seriously consider.For now, I still see 10/2Y yield curve inverting deeper - even after today's yield spike, bond drop. I still see it!!
SLV, GLD pullback continues as warned yday
China stock pullback continues as warned last week
Semis leading the market today on NVDA earnings
TLT rejecting off 92 on higher yields
Not too much selling, but market is getting nervous
DELL into 160 PT
ASML looks ready to break higher, digest above 952 to push to 1000
NVDA tagged 1023, above that can get chased 1047.1050
SMH about to approach 241 long target, needs to close week over 239 but lot of weekend risk exists
AAPL digesting at 191
PDD 155 about to tag, next is 160
TSLA below 180.6 next is 177,175
SMCI 927 pivot, seems to be under right now
XLU pushing down into 70.28
QCOM above 207 next is 209VRTX breaking above 448.40 wkly resistance.
COST above wkly 800 resistance
LLY also above wkly 800 resistance
BA nasty dump thru 182 to 174 PT on delayed China sales
FDX + UPS both broke wkly support. Nasty.
ELF earnings beat - needs to stay > 182.73 wkly
CRWD - needs to stay > 338.45


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Michael's Trading Room Summary

MAY 23, 2024 AM

Weighted Dollar Yields fading & VIX falling is market bullish.

MAG7 - large gap up this morning; blue skys. MACD above zero and pointing higher smoothly.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Didn't drop under 288 for long; odd this has not fallen more from the NVDA fueled push in the indexes. Still expecting 279 / 280. It is fading - it's rolling over.

IWF:IWD - gapped up into 1.95 and is near 52-week highs. Above all moving averages. MACD above zero & pointing smoothly higher.

INTERMARKET

T2123 - starting to soften; seeing weakness appearing. Looks like drama on hourly.

WTI CRUDE - pushed back above 78 after testing support again. Refiners are still sideways.

GOLD (futures) - 2450 daily resistance held and now price has nearly tested 2350 for support.

Nat Gas - inside day breakout (again) holding above 3.00$

Bit Coin - nearly hit 72k over-night but has faded back under 70k to test 69k support this morning. Proxies are still bid.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - rejected 105 daily - not working back towards 104.50$ daily.

USDJPY - flat just under 157 daily resistance. JGB-10Y at 1.00% and this continues to shine as a "intervention threat"

BONDS

TLT - still under 92.00$ daily but over the last 5 days has chopped in a channel; ranged. Getting hit

TNX - still sideways; ranged. Holding above 4.4%. Pushing higher.

ZN (10Y) - resting at 109; sideways now for days. Digesting - expecting higher.

ZT (2Y) - testing daily support; has been a continual bleed for days. Digesting - expecting higher.

10/2 spread - flattener. Expecting (-0.60%).

INDEX

NYSE - 18,200 daily support looks to have held;

SPX - 5340 PT. Support 5292. 5264.85 weekly is the trigger to cut below for a short.

DIA - selling is likely because of AAPL.

SPY - Blue Sky in premarket; 533.50 has been tagged.

IWM - daily r2g; still inside yesterdays price but near yesterdays open this morning in the pre-market.

QQQ - Blue Sky in premarket; 461 has been tagged.

VIX - fell into 11.52 over-night; trying to come up a little but not making much progress. 10.60$ is still the level where Sam expects to see action.

SVXY - daily chart r2g; nearly gapped completely outside of yesterdays range before the open. Once we breakout of yesterdays new 52-week high we'll be in today's new 52-week highs.

CHASE

AAPL digesting at 191

ASML must digest above 952 to push to 1000

CVNA 115 is pivot lower is bearish, but has high short interest so careful when chasing to 99 if below 115

NVDA tagged 1023, above that can get chased 1047.1050

PDD 155 about to tag, next is 160

QCOM- above 207 next is 209

QQQ weakening post open, 456 is gap fill, breadth is starting to roll over on yields popping higher (but still very much in trend)

SMH about to approach 241 long target, needs to close week over 239 but lot of weekend risk exists

SMCI above 927 into 950,990,1077

TSLA below 180.6 next is 177,175

XLU pushing down into 70.28

TREND

BJ - "if 80 then 100"

HONORABLE MENTIONS

AMZN - if we break 180 then we fall into 174 gap fill.

ABNB - sitting on the 100MA weekly. Major breakdown is below 135 weekly. (works for a PT).

AAPL - perfect. it's great. Short against 191

ANET - falling out hard. Broke back under weekly breakout point.

ASML - bullish; 952.50 daily breakout. 895 weekly is the level to stay above (solid short below).

ARM - looks ready to go high - don't like it. Fine - still don't like it.

AMD - 164.46 was breakout point; 174 PT.

BABA - 82 hourly. Not worried about it. Holding above 200-day is fine; expecting it to chop and dance. Still making HL's. Still bullish trend.

COST - fine.

CVNA - breaking; 99.00 weekly makes a lot of sense.

CEG - really nice!

CGEN - starting to work.

DELL - chasing; great looking chart.

DIS - just nasty. Looks like it wants to fade.

ELF - earnings. upward pointing 200-day MA. Above 55-day & 200-day MA. It's trying. Weekly bullish Engulfing. Needs to get above 182.73 weekly.

FSLR - 237 hourly needs to break for a short; 229 then 217 as short PT's (or into the 3-day MA).

GOLD - pulled back. Sam warned yesterday; cheers. Hope you caught that. Margin Requirements were increased - thus part of the reason for the pull-back.

GOOGL - careful; looks choppy.

GOLD / SILVER Ratio chart - still very bullish.

HPE - thin; it's trying but zoom out & you'll see it's been stuck in this range for a long time.

INTU - 671 weekly is the breakout trigger.

IYT - looks like a risk for lower.

IP - breakout of 42 weekly. hit 43 daily resistance. Still has to get above the monthly BB to keep going. Stay above 40.34 weekly.

JD - 31 PT.

MDT - has to trigger above the 100-week

MSOS - has to break above 10.30$.

MRNA - bird flu plays. (NVAX ect ect still bid).

NTES - not exciting.

NVDA 1025 PT and then we'll see. Expected to see digesting here; likely not done going up - but for today this is likely all we get.

PWR - looks fantastic still.

PDD - calls coming in (buying).

QCOM - looks great; still going higher. really nice.

ROST - tested the 200-day MA. Held the 50-week.

SLV - pulled back. Sam warned yesterday; cheers. Hope you caught that. Margin Requirements were increased - thus part of the reason for the pull-back. 27.17 short pt.

SMCI - 927 PT breakout again. Anything above 927 is bullish.

SNPS - nothing wrong; still looks great.

SMH - breakout on weekly. Stay above 239

SNOW - not interested. Nasty.

SAP - still working.

TTD - doing fine..

TSM - stay above 158.40

WMT - awesome. (COST & BJ too)

TD - beat. Good for them

WMB - likely gets defended at 39.76

WDAY - back above the 200-day MA. Needs to cut under all the junk for a good short.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.