Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 7/08/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!

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Rithika's Chase Summary

FROM SAM -
Getting Closer...To a flipping point but not there yet.
First thing out of the gate I see LOTS of bullish option flow in NVDA + TSLA.
TSLA looks hell-bent on heading to 265 Dec high. They are also buying July 300C of size and rolling deep ITM Aug + Sept positions.
Discussed Wed am before I headed out for the long weekend that if NVDA gets/stays > 125, the bearish "h" pattern is negated. It was negated and TSM warning about tight supplies caused the semi sector to explode out of the gate this morning, which was already rebounding since Mon of last week: SMH, ASML, AVGO, AMD, SMCI et al.
INTC was the biggest mover out of a solid TEN WEEK consolidation, triggering a daily bollinger band breakout on Friday at 31.60, hitting 34 premarket. Still looks great to 34.50 daily gap fill from 4/25 on way higher if 32.24 daily support holds. I think it will into earnings 7/25.
ULTA was chased by Archna from Friday but it looks very much like INTC for a potential BB breakout should 399.81 trigger and hold. Strangely, a large order of SEPT $580C way way OTM came in as a lotto play, but clearly the 411.60 daily resistance level is the 1st PT should it get back above the 10W at 398.
TGT is also trying... to stay > its 200D at 141 but must get/stay > its 10W at 150. Then it could be a nice swing long.
CDNS + ICE are both recently rec'd swing/trend longs are still working.
GLW rec'd swing long on June 6th at $37 is pushing into $43. Client Anne rec'd + I posted the details a month ago. Today they pre-announced earnings + their sales are beating their bullish guidance. Niiiicee
OLED is related to GLW but I missed that. Really bullish > 208 wkly support.
PLTR rec'd swing long June 6th near 23.95 with follow up that it needed to get/stay > 25.20 wkly resistance, opened above that last week + closed above 27, so bullish still + in a gorgeous scoop pattern. All part of Gen AI Tech Ecosystem that is thriving on govt spending.
Restaurant Shorts: CMG + WING are my best bets for chase/swing shorts.
CMG: nice chase short into 59.20 PT that now needs to break/get below to continue into 56 daily gap fill with 54.52 overshoot.
WING is in an upwards channel that looks shortable into the bottom of channel: 430-390.
VRNA looks great - like an early RNA chart - with 17 trigger into 18.47; then once it can get/stay > 18.47 it goes higher (like RNA did from 20.80 to 42.)
MDWD rec'd swing long back in Jan has doubled from 11 to 21 with overshot to 24 on M&A offer that MDWD may reject, but is reason for the surge. I spoke about this one often + highlighted they are Israeli based so bidder may be trying to get in before Phase 3 results and/or war escalation. Alex in #kentons-corner-of-biopharma has written often about this one past few months.
NOW was a very effective long rec'd by Archna into a bull trap Friday as it overshot 784.33 PT. Now, NOW is getting downgraded by Gugenheim on lofty AI promises they doubt NOW can meet. Stock falling back inside the wkly trendline with gap down means below 786 stop is solid short into 721 to stay with over shoot to 678, 650, 614 if it really gets going."NOW anticipates an uptick in GenAI business in 2H, but our field work suggests this is unlikely until 2025, if ever. Partner checks, while positive for 2Q, show concern for 2H24, as GenAI monetization may not happen as management suggested."
LCID - random one here but it is the only EV China player that has accomplished the coveted 10/21W crossover (not since it broke down in Feb 2022), so IF it can stay > 2.77 wkly support, it could be a good short-covering candidate

Macro Stuff:
DOLLAR + YIELDS both down today have helped equities continue their rise, as does concentration risk, but keep in mind for volatility-inducing events:

1. My QQQ target of 507 is fast approaching + My MAG7 ratio target of 131 is fast approaching. I see these as potential strong resistance to the rally.

2. NFP shows the strong crowding out by govt spending not private industry. This is not conducive to economic growth, especially how full-time jobs are falling:

https://x.com/SamanthaLaDuc/status/1810282792921514266

1. We have 78% chance of Fed rate cut starting in Sept with Citi expecting 8 consecutive rate cuts from there with NFP Friday pushing the unemployment rate to 4.1%. By baseline bet has been that a print above 4.2% UE and/or 10Y yield below 4.2% would trigger volatility. We are getting closer to these triggers right before VIX seasonally bottoms in late July + Yellen does her QRA end of July.

2. Powell has testimony to Congress Tues & Wed morning, with CPI Thurs + PPI Friday. These are USD + Bond moving events.

3. Biden resists calls to step down so another can take his place. This could get ugly sooner rather than later, but my baseline bet SINCE DEC 2023 remains: Biden will not be on the ballot come November.

I will do my intermarket this afternoon + review tomorrow.

X (formerly Twitter)

Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) on X

It’s not just falling full-tile jobs…As @GlobalMktObserv points out:14 of the last 15 months of NFP jobs have been revised downward - with April and May revised down by 111,000. That’s a lot. And here’s the Crowding Out Problem: When excluding govt jobs, 11 out of the 12…

Rithika chase summary notes:
GLW above 41 into 42,44
OLED also getting chased
AMD above 174 has room to 180, 184 stay above 171
NVDA above 127 back to 130,132
SMCI needs above 886 to be back to 927
META digesting to 531.49, if it builds there can base and move more, otherwise could turn into a fake breakout , watch that level closely
BABA below 74 heading down to 72, 70.5
CMG below 60.48 good continuation short lower into 57, 54 in time
PLTR above 27 back into 29
TSLA above 248 for 256
TNX likely falls and breaks 4.2, causing TLT higher
ULTA kind of looks like INTC needs to get above 400 for 411, 415

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Michael's Trading Room Summary

JULY 8, 2024 AM

MAG7 - big moves last week into new highs; still strong above the MA's on daily / weekly. Sam Still looking for 130 (we are at 128) - could see 131 / 132 overshoot.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - still above 275 - but under 288. (lower is good for long positions - this is a tool that is inverse the SPX).

IWF:IWD - big moves last week into new highs; still strong above the MA's on daily / weekly.

WTI CRUDE - 88.00 resistance on daily still the top of the channel in focus; 72.00 daily is lower edge of channel. That is a wide area of chop. Exploded higher from weather & middle-east risks but is deflating a bit now.

GOLD (futures) - seems to be starting a reversal of the big move last week; be careful - does not look right.

Bit Coin - 52.5k pt & support.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - tame. 106.20$ was the baseline bet & the markets struggled to get to / through it. Faded back from it last week. Sitting below 105 this morning; breaking 104 would be eventful.

USDJPY - faded from 162 daily resistance. 160 daily minor support.

BONDS

TLT - back to 93.00$ daily. Bid but dollar is not. Like bonds.

TNX - 4.2% is the level of risk; below that is drama. Still waiting to hit this level. A lower 10Y would help with some "housing movement."

ZN (10Y) - possible H&S w/ gap fill.

INDEX

SPX - the big move up is petering out;

SPY - parabolic intraday - still bullish.

QQQ - 505 PT. First 2 weeks of JULY are seasonally bullish;

VIX - digesting.

SVXY - keeps marching higher; hard to get bearish POV with this grinding higher.

BXM - still bid. continues to move higher.

CHASE

AMD above 174 has room to 180, 184 stay above 171

BABA below 74 heading down to 72, 70.5

CMG below 60.48 good continuation short lower into 57, 54 in time

META digesting to 531.49, if it builds there can base and move more, otherwise could turn into a fake breakout , watch that level closely

NVDA above 127 back to 130,132. NVDA 130 hit, 132 approaching 135 next

SMCI needs above 886 to be back to 927

TSLA above 248 for 256

TNX likely falls and breaks 4.2, causing TLT higher. its digesting now.

ULTA kind of looks like INTC needs to get above 400 for 411, 415

HONORABLE MENTIONS

AVGO - great scoop pattern. back to the 3-day but does not look bearish.

AMD - blew up above - this is long bullish.

AAPL - follow-through last week getting a shake n bake this morning.

AMZN - doing great. nothing wrong here. Having a hard time @ 200.00$ but has done nothing wrong. It's fine.

ANF - flat at 172 area.

AXSM - big breakout play. Wide call options. 83.90 weekly resistance.

ARQT - has a FDA decision today. Careful .

BANKS START TO REPORT THIS FRIDAY -

BABA - still see 70.50$. Don't see anything different than that. Likely gets defended there

CMG - breaking 60.48 offers a cont short. 59.20 is the 100-day for a short PT.

CRWD - sitting there

$C - earnings on deck

COIN - has to break 212.22.

DELL - has not fired off. 10-w support. Wants to party; has to get above the junk. Push it.

DDOG - clear overshot last week - softening now. Careful. If we break 128.74 we could see some profit taking.

DPZ - upgrade.

EW - nice bulling engulfing.

GM - hanging in there.

GLD - noting wrong with the trend

GILD - upgrade.

GLW - was a recommended swing long. Up - has been a great play. Digested nicely. Expects record sales to exceed guidance. This is why it is popping. Exceeding guidance.

GS - earnings on deck.

ICE - breakout. recommended swing / trend long.

INTC - congrats if you were long in this. 34.50 gap fill. Triggered Friday.

LLY - drug approval.

LCID - moving - has a 10/21 weekly cross-over.

META - stunning. going to digest here. great move higher.

MDWD - bio-tech pick that a client asked about in January 2024. "War Concerns" - still has drug trials to get through as well. Was a offer for M&A.

MU - firm & digesting.

MSFT - digesting.

MS - push into 100-week.

MCD - just nasty; resting on the 200-week MA. don't see it as a long yet. 270 calls coming in. Earnings on JULY 29.

NOW - keep this one in mind; downgraded. 640 PT offered by analysts. Shorts - stay below 784 / 786 area daily.

NVDA - above the TL is bullish & it has exploded higher with SMCI. back above the TL this is moving higher. Very strong; sizable options are coming in as well.

OKTA - stay above 96 (day, week...?)

OLED - great trend; above 201.81 weekly clearly in play.

PLTR - this is violent. Has marched higher. got very rejected in the muck weekly / monthly. Great candle... needed 25.20 weekly & opened above that last week - continued nicely. partnership to aquire compact component parts. Still looks great.

RIVN - looks good.

SLV - noting wrong with the trend

SMCI - bullish with ARM / NVDA - semis are still the reason. Looks good back to 927 PT.

SMH - back into highs.

SHOP - holding above 67.36$.

SIRI - get above $4.00 to continue higher.

SEDG - upgrade ... "eh..."

SG - break 26.45 weekly for a good short to get going.

TAN - likes falling interest rates - looks supportive (mentioned Wednesday). Not overly excited about it

TSM - 10W still supportive. R3 hourly resistance. At some point we will come back to gap fill 185

TGT - has a lot of overhead resistance. Stay aobve the 10-W ... not ready yet.

TSLA - overshot the PT & is now coming back in. Break 246 - then 242 - then 240. Weekly 224 then 217... if we stay below 250 week then it's possible we continue lower. Not going down - even with some options that looked bearish.

UBER - could take off above 73. has not triggered yet.

UAL - had a high volume traffic over the holidays.

ULTA - nice one - Looks a little bit "pre-INTC-ish" ... break above 411 for 415, 440, 451 weekly PT

VKTX - holding so far; if we get back inside it's going to shoot higher.

VRNA - bullish backdrop

VRTX - just wow.

WCD - smooth - up & to the right.

XBI - fine.

Restaurants

CAVA - silly.

CMG - has not broke trend. looks good below 60.48 daily.

DPZ - has not broke trend. Needs to break 585.

SHAK - above the 50- week. Still falling. Not a long. Choppy. 79 PT. Could bounce.

TXRH - has not done anything wrong.

WING - has not rolled over yet. Has not done anything wrong. Keep it below 430 daily for a PT of 390 & then we'll see. could bounce

WEN - a confirmed breakdown - way way weak.

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