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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 4/11/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

Sometimes the best trades are the ones we don't make......... waiting for better setups
Small caps still look very vulnerable as reflation trades - banks, insurers, energy - get sold for growth and yet... NVDA SMCI AMD will not save us this time.
Bond intervention is needed. Watching the 30Y treasury auction at 1ET for a tell.
If weak, the yields will spike even higher with USD and VIX.
I am not a bull, and see fewer and fewer set ups - even Trend longs (once ALL GREEN) are seeing pressure.
Given escalation in Middle East, this is still not a time to be buying but hedging, tightening stops and rolling out those options for TIME - also because of earnings season.
Market is very weak as selling continues under the surface and breadth breaks down.
Shockingly, SPX + QQQ haven't broken trend (10W) but DIA & IWM sure have.
Gold and silver is digesting after an extended move
Oil looks tired
VIX above 16.12 is crucial needs to break 16.4 to follow through to 17.3,18
TLT coming down to 88.47
VVIX above 95.41 can see 98 volatility trying to creep into the market
TAN stocks like FSLR, ENPH looking like a dump with high yields
TYX pushing aggressively likely some intervention soon
$QQQ below downside pivot trouble down to 434.5 below 439
Breadth starting to break down, good to press short while red and svxy red
AMZN above 186 back to 188
FSLR below 183 back to 177 if yields remain high
AZN stay above 68 for 71 , very gappy product so careful
COST above 728 back to 730,735 needs follow through
MSTR below 1500 can go back to 1384
TEAM needs to hold above 217.82 to push back to 230,250
NKE 92 tagging after some digestion next is 94.63
STZ above 270 can see 274.3 if it holds earnings gap up


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Michael's Trading Room Summary

APR 11, 2024 AM

Selling bonds for gold seems to be the narrative still.

MAG7 - gapped up premarket; still sideways daily / weekly. MACD still has the MACD line under the signal line but both are still above the zero line. Hanging in there.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Big push hit 300 yesterday before fading back a little. still well above 290. Extremely Overbought. This is VERY concerning to Sam.

IWF:IWD - breakout yesterday closed at highs of the session; still within a wider daily range but kept the top-side breakout of the smaller range; gapped lower in the premarket but still inside day.

INTERMARKET

T2100 - distribution; daily testing the 21-day MA.

T2104 - continues to roll over; "net selling" is dominant.

T2123 - first red week. Still very bullish. (This is focused on NYSE). Has room to come down. Breadth is breaking down. daily / hourly red. Has high probability of fading lower.

T2126 - signs of bearish not bullish. Still in trend.

WTI CRUDE - down 1% premarket but still within the range on the week. Still above 85.00$. still looking for 83.00$ level. Above 85 we could see 88 / 89.

GOLD (futures) - slightly up - holding the daily / weekly highs.

Nat Gas - fell back below 2.00

Bit Coin - back above 70k - still inside day; slightly green.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - very big move yesterday; inside day this morning & the PPI data did not really move the needle. still at 105 daily. 105.80 still a thick level of resistance; would surprise if we get / stay above.

USDJPY - back below 153 daily but still very elevated. YEN Threat

BOJ 10Y - if 0.80% then 1.00% ... (if 80 then 100). Should see a cont rise in the DXY until BOJ intervenes.

EURJPY - 165 resistance daily held great. down slightly this morning but still inside day. Still holding daily / weekly highs

EURUSD - Testing that 1.073 area again daily; very large move lower yesterday (on elevated volumes) and holding those lows this morning.

BONDS

TYX - they need to come in here NOW - this is getting nasty. 5% was quarterly resistance. Smacked down hard from there. Now it's breaking out. THAT is bullish. This is shocking in an election year - will have a big effect - so watching the 30 year auction close at 1PM.

TLT - no real move from PPI data yet this morning; still where we closed (at the lows of the session) around that 90.22 area. Broke down from the daily wedge. Back to Weekly Kelt low. 88.47 monthly support.

TNX - large push yesterday above 4.5% - has faded a little this morning. Bearish Engulfing daily; could see 4.44%. after closing sharply lower yesterday the 10Y had one of it's biggest moves on record. Sam still see's an intervention or "bond relief" ... we are "risk off" until they come in & support us.

ZB - yesterday the 10Y had one of it's biggest moves on record; worth watching the 30Y today at 1PM auction.

ZN (10Y) - big fade yesterday; minor bounce off the TL. Overshot the bounce area. just very nice. reminder that it just keeps making lower lows.

ZT (2Y) - Overshot the bounce area.

INDEX

SPX - nothing;

SPY - 510 puts still a better bet.

IWM - weakness.

QQQ - keep shorting the rip; have to get above 449 for "crash up" worthy consideration. Net selling came in on the QQQ's. 440 gap fill will be tagged.

VIX - green; VIX above 16.12 is crucial needs to break 16.4 to follow through to 17.3, 18.

SVXY - red; viable to press short with SVXY red & VIX green. Split has distorted the chart.

VVIX above 95.41 can see 98 volatility trying to creep into the market

CHASE

AZN stay above 68 for 71 , very gappy product so careful

AMZN above 186 back to 188

COST above 728 back to 730,735 needs follow through

FSLR below 183 back to 177 if yields remain high

MSTR below 1500 can go back to 1384

NKE 92 tagging after some digestion next is 94.63

STZ above 270 can see 274.3 if it holds earnings gap up

SLV 25.7 digesting, next is 27 hold above 24.4 channel

TLT coming down to 88.47

TEAM needs to hold above 217.82 to push back to 230,250

Tops are a process, QQQ downside pivot back at 439.5 upside 442. $QQQ below downside pivot trouble down to 434.5 below 439

HONORABLE MENTIONS

AMD bouncing on a technical level; not bullish.

AMZN - news this morning. Right back up - going to hit 188.

AZN - boosted Dividend by 7%.

AA- likely see's resistance hold on weekly & digest. This is ok - it's healthy.

AAPL - news this morning.

AVAV - 144 weekly support; hold above that. Daily Squeeze coming.. above the daily 200-MA and 55-day MA.

AMGN - 200-day tag;

BTU - rolled over from the top;

BAC - like finance short. They are extended. Inflation trades helped this alot but now markets seem to be getting nervous over earnings.

BABA - great way to end the week - to get a bullish engulfing on the 10 / 21 weekly.

CVNA - careful; selling off into 76; don't break 76 weekly

CADL - still bullish. Will take time to digest.

CVX - tagged resistance & came back down.

COST - still ok but not excited because of retail woes. increased their dividend; same store sales were good.

DAC - keep it above 71.65.

DT - get above 48 weekly.

DBA - good proxy for "food inflation" - has a merger rumor with Peabody.

EQT - upgraded.

FAST - big earnings dump; back into the weekly Kelts; breaking the 10-week. On weekly support at 71. HAS TO BE DEFENDED here.

GLD - digesting.

HD - getting hit on higher interest rates;

LULU - lower weekly TL in focus. Trend is DONE. 337 lower target.

NKE - upgrade; was up 2% premarket. Doing great; 92.64 weekly likely gets sold. Performing exactly as it should.

NVDA - held the bounce yesterday; pushing higher this morning.

MSFT - news this morning.

MSOS - not falling apart;

PAAS - at resistance; 19.85 likely resistance. between 18.50 / 19.85 is channel.

RENT - "what the heck" - huh? had a 1/20 stock split.

RRC - not sure why it's moving.

RIG - "NO"

SLV 25.7 digesting, next is 27 hold above 24.4 channel

STZ - bullish engulfing from last week looks really good; keep it on the radar.

TEAM - looks good but at resistance. 190 weekly support; daily bollinger breakout; has to close above 217.82. Needs to get above / stay above.

VRTX - just acquired a company.

XLF - boom.

XLE - getting tapped back down;

XME - 61.80 weekly scoop pattern. Outside the weekly Kelts; came back into the weekly bollingers.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.