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Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 12/19/24
Still sick with little voice, but I wanted to show my intermarket and internal charts to clients so as to help you see where we are in this sell-off!
So you will find I presented for an hour then handed it over to Archna and Rithika. Thanks again team for your needed help to cover!!
FOMC hawkish cut I expected, and the SEP reinforced this point, so pricing out rate cuts is still working itself out as govt shutdown looms. The market reaction reflected a tightening of conditions, for which PCE Friday morning might help to loosen. Translation: bonds, yen, gold/silver might find some brief relief tomorrow.
Today's market bounce is a convexity move from VIX being sold at 27, a very popular/historic place to sell btw. Just keep in mind my intermarket review this morning from first hour + last 5 min of room: I see no confirmation yet the selling is done, so for the next few days this market is still at risk AND I still see selling underneath - even today as I showed.
SVXY has come down into its 100W, so this is where I would look for a reversal/bounce potential start to form, but not until next week. USDJPY is at resistance on wkly at 157.62; 10Y T-Note futures tagged all 3 short targets; NYSE fell into 19000 target I gave Monday. So we are on a lot of support.
But...I'm waiting for highest conviction swings based on my indicators basing and turning back up. That will be helped when VIX gets/stays < 19.29 again, for example. Until then I will suggest caution and patience.
Macro still worries me in 2025, and the spiking higher USD + Yields could be foreplay. But I also have QQQ 548 and SMH 272 still to tag in Q1 before I get more convicted for big picture short. NVDA held pretty well in this sell-off, ironically.
