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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
From Sam:
Negative Gamma Begets Negative Gamma
Warned early and often: dealers are in negative gamma territory AND posted again last week: CTAs sell into up/down/flat market. And they have a lot to sell. Add to that market reaction to tech earnings has been negative and MSFT is slated to report after hours post CRWD global outage, and very hard to believe they will guide strongly.
USD is still fighting the 104.50 area as is the 10Y yield chopping just below 4.2%.
I STILL SEE DE-RISKING IN CONCENTRATION BETS into QQQ 449 & SPX 5276.
And I understand you may be tired of me harping on it for past few weeks, but THAT is measured move and I'm not interested in talking longs until we reach it, base, and then gather up the momentum to turn up.
Oil Volatility continues as Oil weakens. And Yields with it.
Falling demand from global slowing growth and falling global credit demand.
Nasdaq Volatility continues as 22.48 wkly close for VXN is critical line-in sand.
Since July 15th pop above 200D, this has been a great tell!
ABOVE is market bearish, below is market bullish.
VIX about to go into backwardation doesn't mean it gets crushed. It needs to go INTO backwardation then back into contango. I have estimated that level to be VIX 20~.
CHASES:
MSTR worked perfectly yday from rejection at 1815 to breakdown into PT 1490 approaching.
QQQ I warned would not be bullish below 465.69 with break of 461.70 Hr support with 456 then 454.60 PT... before moving into 449 this week most likely. THIS IS WORKING GREAT
NVDA great scalp short on HR support break of 110.38 thru 106.48 with 100D as PT near 104. JUST REMEMBER: this was already a great SWING SHORT from that 138 wkly PT where I expected it to roll over. It is now down -26%!
YEN is a real risk of moving higher, which is why BOJ came in to threaten a .25 bp hike versus only .10 in prior threats. IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH. Fed needs to cut ASAP.
SWING/TREND FAVE LONGS still doing fine:
GH, HCA, THC, UNH, CI, CNC - HUM reports next!
AMGN, ABBV, GILD - still XLV breakouts
NVS, VRTX - still nice trend longs as LLY, NVO still in protect/profit taking mode.
KIE, XLF surprising strength
GE, BRKB, ICE - still trend breakouts
XHB, XLV, XLP, XLU - still strong defensive plays wit
LC has earnings: careful
FLR has earnings: careful
SWING SHORT FAVES also doing well:
ANF, PDD, new WMT
NEW IDEAS:
MCD chase yday > 263 is swing bullish. Looking good.
AMT: new breakout long > 215 wkly close looks boring but profitable.
PYPL holding 64 at 50D is very productive once above 68 in particular!
PSX looks like VLO - they need to get/stay > 21W to move higher. Only spot in energy I am bullish for a trade; otherwise, more chop in energy patch. Will post Bob's latest supply/demand charts for the oil traders out there.
PG dropped to its 50W where I saw large SEPT 155 Puts getting sold AFTER I said it likely gets defended here.
REMINDER:
BOJ tonight
MSFT tonight (with AMD)
WED LIVE TRADING ROOM SESSIONS 9-11 + 2-3 then 4-5 with Craig for FOMC
Thinking my GROWTH:VALUE ratio tags 1.90 before bounce in tech.
Michael's Trading Room Summary
JULY 30, 2024 AM
MAG7 - Still inside Thursday's range - under the 50-day MA but above the 100-day MA. closed above the 3-day MA yesterday but the 10day MA is above and will be an issue. Since JULY 10 - it's been "lower lows & lower highs" and a systematic move lower - not scared money racing for the exit but neat - clean - orderly exit from the market
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Since April - we have faded from 312 down below 275 (lower is "better" for the markets) - but we seem to have stalled around the 268 - 275 area and are chopping.
IWF:IWD - Still at Sam's 1.95 level. Firmly under the 10, 20, 50, & 100-day MA's. MACD firmly below zero with no bottoming or basing or turning showing up yet in that MACD structure. Still think there is room to roll over in tech. Still has not "based" to turn higher yet.
INTERMARKET
T2104 - itty bitty buying. Trend has not busted.
T2123 - Breadth still hanging on pushing higher in cumulative 4 week new high and lows
WTI CRUDE - testing 75 daily in the premarket; broke under yesterdays' low. Out side of last weeks range.
GOLD (futures) - tested 2400 yesterday before closing under it. Still under it this morning - chopping sideways on weekly.
Bit Coin - fell overnight under 66k before coming back above it in premarket trading. Proxies also fell (getting trashed - COIN, MSTR)
FX
Dollar (DXY) - fine
USDJPY - coming back with a funky H&S. the rate decision likely does not move the needle.
BONDS
TLT - still pushing. (trying to)
TNX - 4.0% still the baseline bet.
ZN (10Y) - side by side
ZT (2Y) - side by side
2/10 retracing the steepener
INDEX
SPX - Support: 5,460, 5,450, 5,400 | Resistance: 5,500, 5,520. 5376 PT.
SPY - pulled back to trend support. The next time we break the low. We need to roll over. It's slow... have not made it above the 8-day.
IWM - failed to tag the 8-day MA. Still bullish.
QQQ - 449 PT. After 449 it's likely we rise to fill gaps above.
VIX - hitting 20.00$ PT and then getting tapped down ... this would not surprise.
CHASE
BABA soggy af starts to break 78 has gap down to 76.50
BA 187 still acting as resistance, breaks below 185 we see 182,177 again; needs above 187 to be bullish
CL below 99 has gap to fill to 96.5
GE moving into 176.9
IWM 220.7 tag and bounce now above 223 we push back to 225,227
MSTR if this breaks 1657 then 1500, 1400 comes back into picture | MSTR starting to crack down on lower targets
NVDA below 111 heading down to 105, 97.40 | NVDA 106.48 approaching then 97.40
PYPL above 64.20 has room to 68
SPY 546 pivot, break over 550 gapfill, below we have 543 (yields making lower highs and selling off)
TSLA 235 tag and rejection, if it breaks below 228 we see 225, 220 again.. must try to push above 230 to regain momentum
QQQ 465.7 is pivot, above we have 468,471 below 460
TREND
FLR - trend long; has energy - has nuclear - slow mover. Existing Trend Long play. Doing fine.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
ABBV - very bullish.
AMD - earnings tonight.
AMGN - bullish
AAPL - weak - no momentum. 220.20 weekly is the level above - 216 is the weekly level below... 210 still PT.
AIG - beauty. Looking for proof but - that held. Bullish above 80.83 weekly.
AMT - 219 is the level to get above - that's the current PT
ADM - does not have support under it.
AJG - uuge. Insurance plays - great continuation.
BA - don't like it - don't trust it.
BABA - cont short.
BRKB - looks good.
BHP - heavy.
CR - beauty. great mover. Riding above the 10-Week. Profit taking but staying above the 55-day MA.
COIN - FBFF - working.
CNC - big bull engulfing with follow through.
CRWD - clearly busted. Could be months. 234 is the quarterly 10MA. Hit the 100-week. Could bonce 234 "itty bitty" if the puts get monetized.
CGC - the whole space hit terrible - awful.
DIS - bounce from oversold. It's trying. SBUX, NKE, DIS - generally run together... and DIS is getting chased.
DLTR - get back above 400-week. Looks "weak"
GBTC - dump
GS - still bullish.
GH - still a mover.
GILD - bullish
GLW - likely gets defended at 100-day MA.
GBTC - drama. Evening star reversal.
HOLX - earnings were good.
HLIT - don't know it.
HCA - just beauty.
HUM - possible it follows THC and HCA... ?
IHF - firm.
KIE - doing exceedingly well. Been in play. Solidly in play.
LSCC - large gap down & has continued to suffer.
JBLU - has to get / stay above the weekly TL.
LDOS - doing fine.
LLY - still do not see buying.
MCD - hold above 263 for a great job.
MSFT - getting sued for the CRWD drama. More news came in - users reporting connectivity issues. Above 433 area daily - would be bullish but ... after the CRWD issues it's hard to see how it gets above that level.
MRK - 123 weekly support. Earnings over; dumped. Broke the 200-day MA.
MSTR - 1785 weekly resistance holding. 1500 weekly short pt. Next level to break - 1657 weekly.
NVDA - headed back to lower gap fill. Nice chase short. Anything below 116 is ... (116 is monthly resistance.) PT is 97.40 weekly or 106.50 daily or 104.65 hourly. Could bounce at 100-day or 21 week.
NDAQ - looks good
NVAX - no interest; below the 55-day MA.
PG - 200-day near by - Getting defended at the 50-week.
PDD - cont short.
PSX - literally have not looked at this ... popped above the 55-day MA. Holding above the 200-day. Needs follow-through - has earnings after the close.
PFE - above the 200-day MA. tested 32 on the hourly. Holding above the Weekly 30.84 level. Strong guidance but see profit taking.
PYPL - 60.20 weekly support; weekly $64.20 now the level to get through - hitting the 50-week. Above the 55-day & 200-day. Get / stay above 64.20 weekly (or the 50-week). Much more productive above that.
RTX - looks good
RMBS - earnings - large big gap lower. Not a good look. Broke the 100-week. Nice break of 51.31 weekly - not getting defended.
SWK - 104.36 monthly resistance. Stunning job. Above daily 55 MA and 200MA. Looks like MMM - literally. Should digest at 104.
SMCI - fade into the 200
SHW - great play. 354 weekly resistance & PT met.
SFM - crushed earnings. Continues to impress. "if 80 - then 100" worked (hit 104).
TSLA - getting rejected again.
THC - beauty.
TSM - still distribution.
TLRY - fine if it can stay above 1.93 weekly.
UNH - bullish
VRNA - hold 21.33 weekly to be awesome.
VRTX - nice.
WELL - REIT ... thin. Looks good.
XLP - does not look terrible
XLV - doing fine.
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