Playback speed
×
Share post
Share post at current time
0:00
/
0:00
Transcript

Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 7/15/24

Your LIVE TRADING ROOM options:

1. For LIVE real-time & custom engagement: Join our CLUB membership for $350. Includes Samantha’s Swing/Trend portfolios/alerts & all macro-to-micro contributors/trades & all posted analysis/education/Tradytics option flow!!

2. For VIEW-ONLY real-time: Join our COMMUNITY membership for $125. Includes live stage moderators & Samantha's intraday/multi-day Chases & market thoughts!

3. For RECORDING & summary notes: (soon) Join PRO in Substack for $95. Includes the full recording of Samantha's live trading room each daily with summary notes.

FREE FOR NOW

#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

FROM SAM -
Rotation AND Reacceleration from potential Trump presidency?
With betting market bidding up Trump taking White House in January (Nov win), the "Trump Trade" has intersected with the Hedge Fund Short Covering rally.
I have already alerted to the latter and written about it twice last week:
Bullish small caps - value, infrastructure, non-cyclicals, reflation, oversold, dash-for-trash, unprofitable tech, etc.The Trump Trade is more of the same but based on macro reasons as Trump likely creates policies that drive...higher inflation - from policies around deportations, trade tariffs, tax cuts, spending
higher inflation = higher wages (especially without the immigrants to take up the slack) = corporate profit margin compression.
lower dollar - good for US reshoring + US companies that derive revenue abroad, but can cause other issues like higher commodities + yen carry trade unwind.
lower yields - brow-beating Powell daily worked last time, but that was during Monetary Dominance not Fiscal Dominance like we are now.
fiscal spending continues - likely better for non cyclicals, infrastructure plays, but how much more given Biden Admin plan has juiced this in large part already.
tax cuts for rich/companies -  not enough to move needle AND inflationary since Govt needs more revenue not less
tariffs - trade wars are not only inflationary but also contributes to growth slowdown, layoffs
looser regulations - fewer climate incentives (bad for solar, EV for example), but better for oil & gas companies + maybe small companies.
antitrust focus (AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL) - he berated a lot last term, but no break-ups or changes occurred. Still, attacking the largest, safety trades where passive money flows in size will not help that equity advance.
on healthcare front - "more insurance and biotech and big pharma over hospitals" Dr Kenton
For now, the rotation of IWM into 220 trendline continues, as long as 212.25 wkly support holds. Net buying under the surface has continued strongly under NYSE with explosion of new highs over new lows.
SPX is bullish > 5650; bearish below.
My faves highlighted today- for chase or swing based on combo of "Rotation AND Reacceleration" from potential Trump bullish bets:
CAT (leading industrial company) > 335 + 55D just needs to hold 341.40 wkly support now after tagging 347.50.
XPO (leading trucking name) > 107 is trigger at 55D + needs to hold 109 wkly support.
CSX (leading railroad name) > 33.66 at 55D needs to hold 34.32 wkly support
Short-covering rec'd plays:
CVNA continues > 135 as expected
LCID got rejected strongly at 4.29 as expected
UPST spec bet last week/Friday said 29.30 + 31.20 PT in play. Both hit this morning.
AFRM has biggest option strike bull bet at 35/
LC spec bet last week now sitting above 9.65
AEHR continues to digest 16.05 on wkly at 30W quite well.
Reflation trades leading to upside: XLF, XLE, with highly shorted KRE
Solar, China plays hit on Trump bet while Musk pledged allegiance yday resulting in big TSLA pop this morning. 265 is still strong resistance.
Bitcoin also rallying on Trump odds, while...
AMZN biggest momo player down to 191.44 daily support as Trump is not a fan of Bezos/WAPO.

Rithika chase summary notes:
IWM above 213 pushing into 217, 220
QQQ needs to stay below 498 if it to a be a head and shoulders short into 491. 485; above 500 back to 505 
Enph below 111 back to 108 stop: 113
Jd below 27 into 25.53 stop: 28
SMCI above 952 possible into 999
ORCL above 146 into 147.5
CAT above 337 into 341, 345,348 stop: 335
MSTR getting flow above 1540 into 1600,1650
VRNA pushing into 23
TSLA above 261 back into 264, 268,272 stop: 258
SBUX below 74 back inti 72.5,71
CMG below 56 heading to 54.52
RIVN 35$ September 2025 calls coming in
UPST pushing into 29.30 target next is 31.20
COIN holds above 237 potential to 242, 250 stop: 230


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

JULY 15, 2024 AM

Higher Inflation expected under a "Trump" government.

MAG7 - big breakout higher last week; closed down Friday but still above the 3-day MA. Minor gap higher in premarket trading.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Still under 275 (bullish signal).

IWF:IWD - testing the 20-day MA from below. Closed Friday at lows on the week ... flat in the premarket.

INTERMARKET

T2100 - bullish.

T2123 - bullish bounce continues .

T2126 - Bullish.

WTI CRUDE - 83 daily resistance held; still above 81.50 but sideways chop.

GOLD (futures) - still holding above 2400... 2425 daily / weekly resistance. Firm.

Nat Gas - breaking down lower again; ehh.

Bit Coin - Up this morning above 60k; proxies are also popping higher with $COIN, $MARA, $RIOT, ect ect.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - holding above 104 daily / weekly. Big Squiggle. Trump likes lower dollar - thats the concept. Weakening.

USDJPY - JGB-10Y still above 1.00% (above 1.05% too). Resting at 158.00 daily. Coming back down.

BONDS

TLT - Large gap down under 93.00 daily. Weekly is ranged within a channel. Short term - don't see this as "anything" - nothing has changed. Think it gets bid back up.

TNX - Still under 4.25% but after closing at LOD Friday it's gapped up into Friday's highs (has not managed to breakout yet). Still looking for lower

10/2 spread - expecting it to fade back down.

ZN (10Y) - HH & HL's on daily. Breakout last week wasn't as good at the $ZT and it didn't hold as well either. Round Number 111 in focus.

ZT (2Y) - HH & HL's on daily. Still under 103 resistance weekly. Breakout on daily last week was WOW and (so far) it's kept the breakout higher.

INDEX

NYSE - Big sweeping moves above 18,500 now. Weekly shows the HH and HL moves clean.

SPX - Set new Highs on Friday (ATH). Solid Wall here. Dumped right at 5650. Can't really see a move past that unless something changes (like "Trump Sentiment" for example.

SPY - trying but not getting anywhere fast right now.

IWM - 220 is the area for excitement.

QQQ - opening firmly above ... so 496 is your level. 498 is the scalping level lower. 496.00 .. bearish below & bullish above.

VIX - a Little Green

VXN - pushing on the 200-day.

CHASE

COIN holds above 237 potential to 242, 250 stop: 230

CAT above 337 into 341, 345 stop: 335. Approaching 345 above that 348,350

CMG below 56 heading to 54.52

ENPH - below 111 back to 108 stop: 113

JD - below 27 into 25.53 stop: 28

MSTR getting flow above 1540 into 1600,1650

ORCL - above 146 into 147.5

QQQ needs to stay below 498 if it to a be a head and shoulders short into 491. 485; above 500 back to 505

RIVN 35$ september 2025 calls coming in

SMCI above 952 possible into 999

SBUX below 74 back inti 72.5,71

TSLA above 261 back into 264, 268,272 stop: 258

UPST pushing into 29.30 target next is 31.20

VRNA pushing into 23

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Bit Coin moving up - growth / value moving down. Energy Transition plays ENPH / SFSLR - getting tapped down pretty hard. China ADR's getting slammed because of Trump's possible "anti-china' policy. Prison Stocks - it's a theme. Big breakout higher weekly. Trump Impact. REITs in play expecting yields to soften. Building materials as part of infrastructure looks firm.

AMGN - keep it above 323 (? i think - she really slurred it)

AFRM - UPST - "Short Covering Space"

ASTS - wow - !!! marching higher looking really good

AAPL - good sales in India. VERY STRONG (use the german voice when you read it).

AMT - not yet there. It could be ... (SBAC cell tower). Would be better above 219 & stick the landing. It's a good one.

AFRM - massive calls coming in.

AEHR - has held the breakout - digesting the 16.05 well.

BLDR firm

BRKB - looks fantastic.

BABA - above 200 day & 55-day MA. 76.75 weekly needs to break (the 50-week).

CVNA - 134.68 weekly is the level to breakout. 148.73 & 157 weekly PT's in time. Still has lots of shorts.

COST - digesting but has not fallen apart

CAT - needs to get going. Pushing the daily bollinger. Needs to get / stay above the 55-day & it's running. Looks really good. Get above 335 daily. Industrials moving higher.

CSX - it's trying - gotta give it that.

CLF - M&A news.

COHR - continues to move higher - weekly breakout holding.

CELH - 52.56 daily support. could see this break down further but this is support. 49.81 (200-week MA).

$C - needs below 61.67 monthly for a short.

CSX - looks a lot like $CAT or $XPO ... back in play. Leaders of the pack.

COIN - has work to do. Get above 255

EQX - bullish; stay above 5.85 weekly. (fighting the 400-week). Bullish

EOG - over 30-data centers proposed. Above 200 & 55-day MA. Looks good. It's not much of an options market but looks good

$F - small caps still flying.

FLR - still like it trend long.

GM- small caps still flying.

GS - great quarter. Beat.

GILD - like it - still looks good.

GLD - taking a break but still firm.

GDX - doing well.

HUM - moving higher - earnings on the 31st.

HOOD - continues to look bullish. Get above 23.74.

HD - coming back in on refinancing wave that is expected to come through.

IBKR - 4% expected move - earnings JULY 16th. TOMORROW.

IP - digesting.

IR - starting a breakout.

IIPR - like it

INTC - nothing to report.

IYT - get above 66/ 68 area. (FDX - way extended ... UPS Oversold... 144.81 then 150 daily). JBLU - JBHT - ODFL - CSX -

JOE - popping

JBHT - was a great short play... back above the 55-day. 164 daily is the level to stay above.

LCID - tag your it & came back in. hit the 50-week & came back in.

MDWD - new investor agreements - more money... not seeing an impact on the stock.

MSTR - has a lot of flows. Has some weekly TL to get above. Conference in 2 - weeks ... so it will run.

MNST - the monthly needs to give sway (48 or 45). 50.00 weekly support.

MBLY - still under the 55-day MA. Under the 200-day. Possible (old news) Google investment... not sure on anything else.

META - continues to weaken.

MRVL - digesting.

MREO - 4.25 weekly resist. Has to get above 4.25 weekly.

NFLX - bouncing on the 55-day

NVS - ATH breakout - above 109 bullish.

UBER - getting hit ... needs to stick that landing above 73. Not ready

NVDA - looking weak

ORCL - nothing wrong

ODFL - having a resumption. Moving higher. Really Oversold.

PLTR - looks great!!! just a great continued move higher. AI government contracts, gamma.

RNA - stunning.

RIVN - coming back to 16.50 but still looks great. 30-strike calls (a year out). ... that options flows shows they are expecting it to double.

SMCI - breaking out. Getting added to NASDAQ .. gapped & running. 927 still tricky.

SMR - short interest is 20%. Hot - SPAC from 2020 area.

SILVER & GOLD RATIO - still the most bullish chart.

SQ - looks good. Bottom Fishing.

SLV - taking a break but still firm.

TSLA - stayed above 237.40 & thats bullish.

TTD - slow.

TSM - doing well. A little extended. Has a high bar now. Likely see dips get bought.

TWST - looks great. & $GH too.

TGTX - firm & lots of sponsorship

UPST - 29.30 and above is bullish.

UPS Oversold... 144.81 then 150 daily

URI - trying to breakout - needs follow-through

UBER pushed back down at 73 - needs to get above

VKTX - like it

XRT - has been the weakest of the (4) ETF's.

VRNA - holding 21.33 - still see 23.00 fib level. Firm... but can't time this.

XLE - firm against the extinction element in oil.

XBI - falling yields benefits this. Like it. TWST & GH looks great.

XLI, XLE, XHB moving higher.

XLV - firm above 148 weekly

XLP - get above 78 weekly

XLU - cont above 70 weekly. Laggard but will be fine.

XPO - keep it above the 200-day.

XLF - had $GS beating. $MS.

XLV - hanging out

XME - value is outperforming growth over the last few days.

FOOD

CMG below 56 heading to 54.52

DPZ - short still in play. 485 & 470 in play.

WING - took 3 days to get into the TL. Looks weak. Could bounce & roll over. 379 weekly needs to break weekly


Before you leave!

Please remember I have a great team you are helping to support.
If you enjoyed this analysis, let us know!

Discussion about this podcast

Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.