For RECORDING & summary notes: Join PRO in Substack for $950 /yr. Includes the full recording of Samantha's live trading room each daily with summary notes.
Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary 1/15/25
BOUNCE ACTIVATED - in Stocks, Bonds & Yen!
So many think it’s the tiny beat in CPI - I detail the data today against the 44-month long trend in above 3% CPI - in my premarket review. No, it is not CPI that caused yen, bonds and stocks to bounce: It is very clear in my mind that it is:
ALGOS: reacting off the tiny CPI beat. - as we gapped exactly above the gap down in SPX 5905 from JAN 10th.
HEDGES: from ES futures where large buyers of puts added yday in size driving up the put:call ratio 3:1 - that are now unwinding.
BANK BEAT: from sentiment that banks beat in their earnings announcements pre-market, relieving market of immediate worry on their performance and consumer spending as sign of economic strength.
BOJ: which triggered the Yen to bounce which is driving the bounce in bonds, which is pulling down US dollar and yields, which is fueling the move higher in stocks. Specifically, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said last night that they are considering a rate hike and this month's meeting is live, increasing the changes of follow through. JGB 10Y yields had already front-run this potential - moving from 1.1% JAN 6th to 1.26 today. AND exactly as I warned would be the reason for the yen, bond, stock bounce. AS POSTED YDAY IN #TRADING-ROOM-NOTES:
DXY:10Y RATIO: dumped on cue as warned:
KEY LEVELS:
I had sized up that market breadth was exploding and called it a +90% up day even before I saw the data. It was in fact 91.73% ;)
I then warned that it is not a matter of if just when we will have - within one week - -90% down day in breadth.
But until then, the bounce is engaged and likely lasts until Thursday, before some de-risking into the long holiday weekend and inauguration Monday.
