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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 4/03/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

Market still has no real selling
Yields needs to get back below 4.36 for market bounce, just looks like digestion rn
SPX pushing to 5235 gap fill
QQQ filling 443.47 gqpfill on DXY dump
Silver and Gold pushing to sam’s targets with massive option positioning
Pot stocks bullish on legislation
VIX needs to base above 15.21 if it wants to go higher
CGC needs above 8.35 for 9,10
AA stays above 37 it is really bullish
XME above 61 we can see 64,66
SMCI pushing to 952,927 stay below: 1077 for a head and shoulders for 800
NVDA heading to 860 and intime 800
Cost pushing to 698
SLV tagging 24.51 next is 25.74 stay above 23.8
TSLA fading down into 155PT below 165


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Michael's Trading Room Summary

APR 3, 2024 AM

Lot's of fed speakers this week. A lot of fed speakers today (including Powell). Wages are up 5.1% which is inflationary.

GOLD - Central Banks are in trouble above 2150 .... Dollar is weak against gold.

MAG7 - cut under the 20-day but managed to rise back above it by EOD yesterday. Still under the 10-day MA.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Broke through 280 & testing 285; this is headwinds for the market.

IWF:IWD - tagged the 100day MA and bounced on it. Still under the 50, 20, and 10-day MA's.

GOLD / SILVER ratio chart on monthly is very strong. Very bullish precious metals.

INTERMARKET

T2104 - "net selling" - not heavy but it's starting.

WTI CRUDE - Still holding above 85.00 daily.

GOLD (futures) - 2288 was tapped before fading back; still above 270 daily. GOLD - Central Banks are in trouble above 2150 .... Dollar is weak against gold.

Nat Gas - coming up from the bottom.

Bit Coin - fell into 65k and paused

FX

Dollar (DXY) - popped above 105 briefly before fading back below 104.75. Coming back down - which supports equities.

USDJPY - Still a very tight range daily; holding just below 152 and just above 151 ... getting a little freaky. Pushing into 152 area - so careful. Getting really close to moving higher.

10Y BOJ - above 0.80 ... "if 80 then 100" (1.00) ... that is what it's looking like right now.

BONDS

TLT - after the gap down yesterday - we closed near the HOD - but have gapped down again this morning to yesterdays open (near 91.50 area). As mentioned yesterday - let's get into 91.32 weekly & we'll see.

TNX - After the large gap up yesterday we faded lower to close near the lows of the session. This morning we have popped back up again near yesterdays high (about 4.40%). Target 4.44% (Yields needs to get back below 4.36 for market bounce, just looks like digestion right now).

ZN (10Y) - testing yesterdays lows again this morning; near 109 -1/2. Still looing for 108 area.

ZT (2Y) - testing 102 for a break-down - still has not filled the gap. Still looking for 101 area.

10/2 spread - moving back towards zero is "fed cutting" and moving closer to -0.60% is "fed not cutting."

INDEX

NYSE - Trend starting to roll-over (the MACD anyway).

SPX - 5189 held support; 5235 gap that could hold. SPX pushing to 5235 gapfill

SPY - went "near" the 21-day MA but didn't hit it. Sitting on 518;

IWM - coming back in off the 10-week; will be a lot stronger if we get the 10-Year (TNX) to come back down.

QQQ - called it done at the TL & that worked. Under the 21-day MA now. With GOLD rising - it's time to see the QQQ's slow down - that was Sam's call & it's working. 435 in the QQQ is still the call. Still not "buy the dip" bullish yet. Hitting 443.77 daily ... sideways congestion continues.

VIX - Could open the Bollingers Weekly to see 16 /17 .. but not thinking of a big move just yet. Needs to get above 15.21 hourly and is still not really able to do that. It's up 7% but it's just still not above that 15.21 which is "key" (or 16.00 weekly)...

CHASE

AA stays above 37 it is really bullish

COST - pushing to 698

CGC needs above 8.35 for 9,10

$QQQ opening at 439 a little weak

SPX sitting at 5200 next is 5189 with yields pushing higher. SPX pushing to 5235 gapfill

SLV tagging 24.51 next is 25.74

SIL needs to get above 29.61 for 31,33.24

XME above 61 we can see 64,66

SMCI pushing to 952,927 stay below: 1077 for a head and shoulders for 800

NVDA heading to 860 and in time 823

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Silver was such a great call; cheers if you took it. 6% in 6 days ... so "yup" - Commodities are so impressive right now; gold, copper, silver, crude, and even agg.

ACB - short covering - careful of rejection areas

AA - on fine. 32.25 is a great place to defend. Breakout is 34.50 weekly is breakout point. 37 is next. Hitting three levels of resistance - above 37 area & keeps that breakout it will be very very bullish.

BABA - has been (in the past) bullish for equities when two heads of state meet.

CALM - massive bullish candle weekly ; options are poor; this is doing really well & earnings was a great Beat. Very bullish chart. Feeds into "inflation not going away" narrative.

CENX - oh wow. Weekly Squeeze on Aluminum. 16.80 weekly resistance / monthly resistance. Get above that for a cont move higher. Just keeps getting stronger.

COST - downgraded. Broke back into the Keltner weekly. Looking at the 21-week as a short PT. 698 first PT.

DIS - Activist meeting is today; We'll see.

GOOGL - breaking out into all time highs this week;

GLD - have strength here; no question.

GDX - just amazing; very bullish. Stunning.

GM - got tapped down; not in trouble here.

LULU - completely unwinding the gains.

MRK - like this.

MNMD - 12.63 weekly likely pauses there (with this current explosion)

NVDA - 860 short term PT and then 823 in time.

NVO - coming back to the 10-week.

OWL - 18.00 weekly is level on the chart. Holding above that

$PLAT - call it 1,000$ - get above & keep it to move higher.

$PALL - not safe to buy yet (looking at the KST indicator). Basing is a good start - but getting above zero is very bullish & we are not there yet.

PCAR - orders down - recalls are up. Evening Star reversal weekly; likely heads lower if we break weekly 119.00

SLV - 23.84 weekly breakout. Still bullish; nothing wrong here.

SMCI - H&S forming on Daily. Rolling over with PT 800.

SIL - get above weekly 29.61 resistance for a push into the 200-week MA.

SPOT - still raising prices - accounting for the push higher.

SBSW - 5.82 weekly resistance; could spike into 6.00 but then... not so sure after that. Lots of work to do.

TSLA - breaking the daily bollinger low- fading into 155 PT. Has a ... 400 week MA below that. Has to break 161 hourly first. Above 167 bullish - below is bearish. The Options show it Looks like it wants 150. Looks Very weak.

TGT - still looks good.

TRIP - a china company.

ULTA - ooooh.. ok. Broke the 100-week MA. Bounced on the 200-week MA.

XLE - way above the monthly - stay above 95 weekly.

XME - 66 is measured move. Stunning "scoop" pattern;

VLO - still bullish. (PBF too).

VNDA - looks done going down; above the 50-week but needs to digest the daily 200-MA so needs time.

Wages are up 5.1% which is inflationary.

GOLD - Central Banks are in trouble above 2150 .... Dollar is weak against gold.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.