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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 4/08/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

Market subdued to start the morning with yields strong but dollar saggy
Oil failed to hit 88 but above pivot at 85, breaks this can test 83
Sam thinks bonds could get bid, while gold and silver takes a breather and digest
Breadth still green but elevated
SPX potentially bounce to 5226 and rejection, still waiting on move DXY 104.20 important area
VIX > 16.12 market bearish; below market bullishSMCI 927 tagged, now needs under for 886 needs to pass the monday test
AMD stays below 168.80 for the first hour will come down to 164.162; a vix crush could bid up the equities above 170 we have 174,176
AMZN 188 yet to tag during regular trading hours
GOOGL 153.70 pivot, strongest of the FAANGS today. 155.6 next then 160
MSTR below 1500 we have 1359 if that breaks then 1280
AAPL overshoot to 165.7 then bounce
TSM bullish over 142.5 weekly
TSLA needs above 174.50 for 180,186
CPNG needs > 19 for bullish impulse
NKE - low risk entry long above 88.80 into 90, 91.05, 92.60


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Michael's Trading Room Summary

APR 8, 2024 AM

Sam wrote up some content & posted in Slack; take some time to review that. (Samantha's Market Thoughts). Dollar strength to other currencies but dollar weakness related to hard assets. Yellen has been in China since Thursday & it seems to Sam that Yellen is not doing so well. Still expecting a warm housing market 2024.

Backdrop for Inflation oriented stocks still uniquely good right now.

MAG7 - gapped up Friday & again this morning in premarket. Still chopping sideways in a daily range / weekly range. still above 50, 20 & 10 -day MAs. Daily MACD line has crossed under the signal line but is still above zero (around the 1.30 / 1.40 area).

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - still holing near the 288 area; still looks strong (which is a headwind to the broader markets)

IWF:IWD - Daily MACD still below zero; MACD line still under the signal line as well. strong flows friday & a good r2g gap as well on Friday. Gapped up premarket again this morning but not as strongly. More Value over Growth (except for AMZN).

INTERMARKET

T2104 - thin but it is green.

T2123 - still green. (NYSE).

T2126 - looks like ti wants to roll over weekly. Under the surface there is a lot of "tech" that is weak.

WTI CRUDE - failed to hit 88; still above 85. Breaking that offers 83.00$. Still bid. In the 99th percentile (with GOLD).

GOLD (futures) - tagged 2350 before pulling back into a doji this morning. New Highs; If we do start to turn around this is where Sam would expect weakness. In the 99th percentile (with oil).

Bit Coin - back above 70k - popped above 72k this morning; bit coin proxies are also up this morning (RIOT, MARA, COIN, MSTR, ect ect). MACD daily needs to get back above 2.0). Bouncing.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - daily channel 104 / 105. Taking a rest.

USDJPY - Daily channel 151 / 152. Came really close to hitting 152 this morning before fading back some. The BOJ -10Y ... "if 80 then 100" ... it's pushing there. If intervention then they would sell gold & buy bonds.

BONDS

TLT - gapped down Friday & closed at the lows of the day; this morning is also gapped down - below 91.00$. Looking for bonds at a "tell." Needs to get back above hourly 91.35

TNX - 4.4% still acting as resistance; the next time we break the 4.36% area we likely see the bond bounce.

ZN (10Y) - Still expecting a bond bounce.

ZT (2Y) - Still expecting a bond bounce.

IRX - tight bollinger band; not sure where it goes when it pops - but it is building a tighter range and energy for a pop. #SQUEEZE

FVX - big bullish expansion bar.

INDEX

SPX - After Thursdays sudden fall - price on Friday rallied back above the 50% mark of Thursday ... also back above 5200 before the close. Still sideways daily with a daily channel between 5150 / 5270. Sitting here 5211 & chop. Flat-Line. Could bounce into 5226 area hourly.

SPY - Flat-Line.

IWM - Thursday's premarket gap higher helped when price fell to close at the lows on the day; the Friday recovery didn't get back above Thursday's 50% level and even with the gap up this morning - price is still under that mid-point & still fighting to get outside of Fridays range.

QQQ - On Friday - price closed under the Thursday Candle's 50% mark (call it 441$) but this morning has gapped up above that minor resistance into 442 area. Flat-Line. Could "re-up." Still Struggle.

VIX - Still holding above the Thursdays daily candle 50% mark - keeping the pop up above 15.00$ daily (so far).

SVXY - gapped up in premarket; still within Friday range. Off the 114 daily highs - looks to open this morning below 110. Weekly channel 114 / 107.

CHASE

AMD stays below 168.80 for the first hour will come down to 164.162; a vix crush could bid up the equities above 170 we have 174,176

AMZN 188 yet to tag during regular trading hours

GOOGL 153.70 pivot, strongest of the FAANGS today. 155.6 next then 160. Hold above 152 weekly.

MSTR below 1500 we have 1359 if that breaks then 1280

SPX potentially bounce to 5226 and rejection, still waiting on move DXY 104.20 important area

SMCI 927 tagged, now needs under for 886 needs to pass the monday test

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Still bullish precious metals but expecting some intervention. China is backstopping their capital markets. GOLD / SILVER ratio still the best looking chart.

AG - who knew? Hit 8.00 weekly resistance. Sensitive to SLV prices.

AAPL - great fade; into 100-week. Not the best place... could overshoot short into 165.70 before a bounce.

AMD - 164 didn't quite hit... close enough. Below that we have 160. Under the daily 55-day MA.

AMZN - big bump up; like it alot. IT's the only MAG7 swing long. Upgrade on the 5th & again this morning. PT 215. 188.11 weekly resistance likely is where it closes for now; Expect a possible sell-off at 188.

BA - does not look compelling.

BABA - still trying to be relevant.

CRWD - looks like it is ready to break.

COIN - looks weak too. "first touch bounce / second time break" ... then it should start to flush

CROX - long closed last week.; looking like a good short term short...

CPNG - the AMAZON of South Korea ... 19.00 weekly resistance. Bullish above 19 weekly. Trying again.

$C - 63.61 daily resistance holding. Still above 21-day MA. 61.67 monthly support.

CCL - still under the 200-day MA. Not exciting.

CADL - still bullish. Still extended. Still looks good.

DIS - still looks bearish.

GOOGL - strongest MAG7 today

GDX - time for a pause in the miners. very nice. extended.

MU - not excited about chasing this.

MSFT - looks fine.

MP - popping with flows this morning.

META - strong

MSTR - a better short than a long; came back to the 21-day MA. daily H&S pattern. "first touch bounce / second time break" ... looking like it is trying to break. Above 1815 is a signal that the short is wrong. 1315 weekly is short PT.

NFLX - strong.

NKE - 2-bar reversal weekly. has to stay above 88.80 weekly. PT into 92 / 92.50

NVDA - the bounce is getting sold; the bounces are lower highs.

PYPL - trying again; undervalued tech play.

SLV - lit up in China. Expecting this to come back in.

SQ - eh; has so much room to make up.

SAND - still under the breakout level.

SMCI - looks so good as a short; 927 weekly broke. Great short; stay below 927.

TSM - looks very bullish; above 142.20 weekly. Hitting daily bollinger top; has to get above 147.60 daily. 158.40 weekly is likely where it's going if it can clear that daily resistance & gets above 145 daily.... Would be more of a "careful" if semi are weak - swing long... Trigger above 146.70 weekly. Stay above 142 weekly.

TALO - recommended by Brian as an EMP play. 15.42 weekly PT/ needs to break out above that.

TAN - get above the 46-weekly ... and the 200-day MA needs to turn higher. Does not look exciting.

TSLA - long above 170; hold above 167.50 weekly. Getting chased this morning.

USO - monthly chart ... if 80 then 100.00$ .... trying to get above 83 high (monthly)... but coming back to 80.88

XLF - earnings starting Friday; looks tired. Banks start it

XLE - a pause at an extended level.

XME - protect if long here. Weekly "scoop" pattern

XRT - closed long last week.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.