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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
From Sam:
Bull Run Almost Done?
My expression that last week of "Forced Selling turned Panic Buying" is clearly still in play:
Daily Gap Fills for SPX 5639 and QQQ for 493.15 - as called out here since LAST MONDAY when I returned from vacation and showed you the bullish Growth:Value ratio hooking up - are still working.
NVDA gap fill into 125.52 then daily trendline tag of 126.88 with overshoot to 129.80 has also worked.
XLK just tagged daily gap fill at 224.90.
IWM into 215 daily gap fill
etc, etc, etc.
Basically VIX into 14.29 and then let's see ;-)As reviewed this morning: summer volumes next 2 weeks are super light. I wouldn't be surprised if today was near the lowest volume of the year.
At the same time, CTAs are forced buyers with corporate buybacks and gamma positive dealer structure and VIX still falling into Wed expiry & its 200D... so much so that SPX just closed 8 trading days in the green. It hasn't been "this bullish" since November 2023 when Fed announced its pause of rate hikes.But with USD AND OIL AND YIELDS also falling, the equity call-chasers are getting loud, not realizing how bearish this combination is to hitting carry trade hedges and bank NIMs and economic growth. But the market doesn't see that yet.
SAFETY STILL PAYS: XLV, XLP, XLU
Gold is still breaking out and GDX is still a strong sector rotation with homebuilders.Oversold Value Plays I still like swing long:
MCD, PYPL, IP, RKT, VNO and looks like CI may be next.
Boring WMB and WPM are also doing really well.
BRKB + Insurance brokers like BRO + AGJ are still trending higher as well.
Reminders: ICE + NQAD, TEVA + RMD, MCO + IRM - lots of ATH across lots of non-tech sectors, thank you very much.
See posted TREND scan from Friday posted in the trend-ideas channel.
ALL STILL WORKING.Some good looking tech breakouts this August are still in play - MELI, PLTR - with UBER trying to get/stay > 73.82 wkly resistance.
Most of the trend breakouts I have recommended have been in healthcare/biopharma: REGN, ISRG, NVS, VRNA, AZN, ABBV etc.
ABBV had a very profitable (150%) option play rolled up from JUNE '25 $180C to JAN '26 $210C - as an example.Must follow kentons-corner-of-biopharma for his excellent analysis + still profitable plays - including VKTX which we just reviewed this morning as still bullish before PFE is rumored to be interested in acquiring sending the stock up 18%!! Same time we reviewed his swing long in TGTX before a 14% advance.
We need a macro trigger to interrupt flows and it very well could be coming this Friday at Jackson Hole.
Craig and I will do a late afternoon MacroAdvisor EDGE webinar to assess post-Powell speech.Rithika chase summary notes:
SPX 5550 tagged again, now 5550 becomes pivot, above we have 5567, 5580 below we have 5522, 5508
QQQ gap unfilled at 476,480.14, 473 now becomes pivot below we have 468
IWM above 212.55 heading to 214.20, 215
Buying still strong under the surface
XLF needs to stay above 43.67 for 44.11; below 43.67 we head back to 43.11
AMD approaching 153 little digestion above 147 can continue higher but careful its against the 10 week here, in time can continue pushing to 200 day, on chase can see 156 above 153
NVDA pushing into 125.8, 126.88 maybe an overshoot into 130 before earnings
Some weakness coming in for jackson hole, AAPL below 226 can come back down to 224,222
PYPL 68 tagging next is 70.6
DIS 90 tagged, above we have 92.53 next
SBUX digesting below 94 can come back to retest 89 in time
TSLA 221 approaching some digestion then 225
DXCM above 76 for oversold bounce into 81
BTCUSD digesting the bearish crossover of the 50 day and the 200 day
GSK above 41.38 can push into 43
VKTX needs above 57.65 to trigger higher into 65 just waiting under so far
UBER needs to get above 74 to lift off needs to stick that landing
Michael's Trading Room Summary
AUG 19, 2024 AM
CTA's and Corporate Buy-Backs within a "August Thin Liquidity" environment means we could continue to see large violent moves. RSP:SPY projects that there is still "more to come" for a reflexive move.
MAG7 - MACD crossed up but is still under zero. Above all daily MA's.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - broken
IWF:IWD - Sam's 2.0 target was perfect. Has room to rally - and we have big buyers from CTA's and Corporate Buy-backs. Above 2.0 is call buying chasers.
INTERMARKET
T2100 - GREEN
T2104 - net buying - still. coming back into previous distribution area daily. Getting extended but has nothing here to suggest it's ready to turn lower. Moving higher still... Weekly recovery candle was strong - and we held it into Friday close.
T2123 - Moving higher; looking for gap fill.
T2126 - GREEN
WTI CRUDE - testing daily 75.00$ from above; 72.50 weekly is a level to watch. 80.00 on the upside (weekly) also the level to watch. That's a wide channel. Short the RIP. No Trust in the rally in crude.
GOLD (futures) - tapped 2500 before coming back in. 2483 daily is a level of interest.
Nat Gas - nothing here.
Bit Coin - flat as we start the week ... under 60k but above 58k ... tight range for Bit Coin. BTCUSD digesting the bearish crossover of the 50 day and the 200 day
FX
Dollar (DXY) - major support at 100.
USDJPY - trying to find stability; does not look safe. Above 148 weekly = bullish but it didn't get there.
BONDS
TLT - Back above 97.50 daily after Friday's Doji day. Daily range 95 / 100 ... digesting.
TNX - Broke below Friday's low - starting the week with weakness. Still within last weeks range. 3.85% is a level to watch. Still see the risk of falling yields. 3.8 is line in the sand to break. "SAVE FROM FAILURE" ... if we get back below 3.8 then it's going to cause banks to "give it up"
ZN (10Y) - classic daily LH and LL's but holding above 113 daily minor support.
ZT (2Y) - classic daily LH and LL's but holding above 103 daily minor support.
10/2 spread - after popping up to 0.00% the drop back down has been just as swift. Back in the wedge.
INDEX
SPX - 5555 here now. Get above it to make it support.
SPY - Bearish hedges coming in.
IWM - Small Caps kinda neutral. 50W tag ... close above 10W ... Open above 212.44 W... Above 212.55 weekly then it looks good. 215 is short term price target. above that 215 then you could get another chase to the next level.
QQQ - 476.50 hourly. could digest into daily 465 before popping higher into 480 then 493 PT's.
VIX - 14.50 daily expected bounce or volatility stability ... we are where VIX "Should" stabilize.
BXM - biggest moves ever in the last few weeks. Historic moves - next area of resistance is 19550 weekly
CHASE
AAPL - Some weakness coming in for jackson hole, aapl below 226 can come back down to 224,222
AMD approaching 153 little digestion above 147 can continue higher but careful its against the 10 week here, in time can continue pushing to 200 day
DXCM above 76 for oversold bounce into 81
DIS 90 tagged, above we have 92.53 next
GSK above 41.38 can push into 43
IWM above 212.55 heading to 214.20, 215
NVDA pushing into 125.8, 126.88 maybe an overshoot into 130 before earnings
PYPL 68 tagging next is 70.6
QQQ gap unfilled at 476,480.14, 473 now becomes pivot below we have 468
SBUX digesting below 94 can come back to retest 89 in time (Moves with $DIS and $NKE generally).
SPX 5550 tagged again, now 5550 becomes pivot, above we have 5567, 5580 below we have 5522, 5508
TSLA 221 approaching some digestion then 225
UBER needs to get above 74 to lift off needs to stick that landing
VKTX needs above 57.65 to trigger higher into 65 just waiting under so far
XLF needs to stay above 43.67 for 44.11; below 43.67 we head back to 43.11
TREND
CCJ - trying to bounce. Needs care. Can go Sideways for a long time.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
AZN - looks very firm above 80 weekly
AAPL - 226.34 weekly ... hitting it's head. 232.33 is the weekly gap fill.
AMD - announced a M&A ... and DID NOT FALL as a typical M&A announcement would cause. It's peers have fallen instead. 153.50 daily is the next PT ... (hourly 154 hit premarket...) 151 weekly 10MA. 55-day MA. Lot's of resistance. 200-day MA in time - still looks very good.
BABA - still not a trend reversal until it's above 89 weekly. It's a long trade but but a trend. Needs to base & move higher. 86 weekly resistance. Likely hit's it head there & get's tapped back down.
CAT - Still inside last weeks range. CI - looks bullish. but has not moved
CSCO - back above the 55-& 200-day MA's. 50.00 weekly resistance.
CRWD - not excited.
DIS - 92.50 in time.
DAC - passed above the 55-day MA. 86.50 weekly resistance. Not a big mover.
DXCM - oversold bounce.
DLTR - looks like it wants to rise from the bottom's
DG - looks like it wants to rise from the bottom's
KRE - 55.90 is the level to get above. 54 is support
KMI - back above 21 weekly.
GOVX - pop continues.
HUM - on the ground
MARA - it's nothing.
MSFT - digesting - back above 200-day but still under the 55-day.
MELI - soon. We are so close. 2015 daily getting hit. 2017 hourly getting hit. Absorbing a lot of sellers.
MCD - above the 200-day MA. (the 200-day MA is flattened out). Long is working very well. (Part of the XLP, XLU, XLV call-out). 285.75 daily resistance to get through / above. It's at 286 premarket on the hourly. Be Careful. MCD - 282 monthly support. productive.
MREO - having a hard time rolling over. 4.40 weekly resistance. Still looks fine. MDWD - still digesting - looks great.
NVDA - tagged 90.36 monthly support before the violent rip back the other way. Testing 123.50 daily on Friday ... Big recovery moves last two weeks. If Daily / weekly 116 breaks then we could see 90 ... but it could take weeks / months. 125.60 weekly resistance / PT. 127 w/ overshoot into 130 Daily. Waiting on earnings to get above 130 area.
NFLX - coming back to test the weekly highs. Waiting for breakout. 691 W.
NU - massive move. Digest.
PYPL - 70.66 weekly is the level to get / stay above to be bullish trend.
PLTR - massive moves. (NU too). Expect a tag & digestion.
SMH - Massive H&S pattern showing up on the daily chart. Monthly has done well since the 2023 lows... got above the 10-month & continued higher into 250 area before dumping VIOLENTLY below the 10-month mean test. "First time we test... second time we break..." 200-day MA is still pointing higher. Could see months before the daily H&S pattern play out. Also - an H&S pattern can be continuation patterns (not just reversal patterns).
SMCI - still under the 55-day MA and 200-day MA.
SBUX - 92 weekly now under us... needs to be supportive. 55-day MA resistance. Moves with DIS andf NKE ... "Consumer Tell" - digesting to 89 in time.
SLV - miners doing well. Get above weekly 27.17 to be convincing. Gold digesting red.
TPH - should do fine.
TGTX - starting a new weekly breakout. Opened well this week - looks really good.
TSLA - weekly TL tagged from below. At a "big test area" on a number of stocks... 226 daily is next level of resistance. Still a momo trade in the market. Still oversold relative to the others.
UFPT - 330 weekly resistance. Under the radar but very successful medical device company.
VRAX - hot. VKTX - digesting ... would not short this.
XLF - back to the July highs... be careful. 43.50 weekly support - hourly - 43.69 needs to hold. 44.11 daily resistance is the short term PT and the level to get above.
ZIM - earnings. Right back into the flow... 23.76 is the level to get above
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