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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
FROM SAM -
Forced Selling Still In Play, Obviously
VIX review remains the same: ABOVE 14.49 is market bearish but above 14.88 is really market bearish. Resistance areas: 16.22, 16.50
VVIX closed firmly above 200D yday with 96.22 resistance.
VXN closed firmly above 200D Monday and still in play to 22.48
NVDA 116.60 was daily gap fill PT finally hit; NOW needs to break 16.53 to see 106.47
QQQ not only tagged my 479.19 bet it busted thru so now 476.50 on way to 468 in time.
SPX 5567.19 wkly support gave sway so now firmly in play down to 5523.64, 5532, 5505 overshoot as posted since Monday
AMZN just tagged 183.53 PT then broke.
AAPL break of 228.87 to 226.34 to 223 PT also working. On way to 220.20
Semi Shorts still working - gave many of those PTs in yday's trading-room-notes and live. Example: AMD just tagged 153.49 for example
Ironically, plays around LARGE CAP VALUE still working LONG
and WARM SUMMER HOUSING MARKET call still working LONG
GILD, AMGN long still working
KMI, WMB long still working
CRWD short below 367 tino 349.92 into 338.45 worked
Restaurant shorts really worked: CMG, WING, DPZ
Warned yday on LLY, NVO to protect these TREND LONGS
BIG SELLING HERE as warned.
I keep watching my growth-value rotation ratio as tell when this FORCED SELLING will stop. I posted this chart in samanthas-market-thoughts channel yday expecting 1.95 area for a strong growth bounce. We have dropped IN ONE WEEK from 2.18 to 1.98 which only gets us to Feb 2024 high which was also NOV 2021 high.
Ironically, we have left behind some very big gaps in SPX + QQQ, so I can't rule out that when we bounce, it could be a big one. But first, the FORCED SELLING needs to finish. And clearly it hasn't. OpEx tomorrow so take care. Trading room will be closed Friday.
Have a great rest of your afternoon and weekend!!!
Rithika chase summary notes:
QQQ 485 pivot, relief bounce could go to 491, 495 ; on the downside if 485 rejects we have 479
CMG 54 tagged, 52.50 next below
MCD holds above 258 it has a channel to 271
NVDA above 122 gapfill to 125
etsy pushing into 67
PLTR above 28, 30.5 next
IWM above 224, 226.2 next
msft potential to 479 then bounce
advance decline is green
aapl below 228 target 226, 224
Michael's Trading Room Summary
JULY 18, 2024 AM
10Y auctions today at 1PM.
MAG7 - Firmly under the 3-day MA. Closed at lows yesterday. Still above all other MA's. Still at highs daily / weekly. Still bullish. Sam said "Still see 132"
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Still under 275 - closed under 270 daily.
IWF:IWD - Completely under the 50-day MA. Closed at lows again yesterday. 100-day MA coming into focus. Nearing a bounce area - not ready yet. Looks like we have a little more room to go before a mag7 bounce of size.
INTERMARKET
T2100 - Still green
T2123 - took out the highs.
WTI CRUDE - wide moves yesterday - tagged 81 and almost tagged 83. near 81 this morning in premarket trading.
GOLD (futures) - Breakout on weekly; 2483 daily hit yesterday; still holding the weekly breakout.
Nat Gas - bounced near the 2.00 area daily; still nothing here.
Bit Coin - still fighting to get above 65k & keep it. Starting sideways for the 3rd day after making a big move higher (from 61k to 65k).
FX
Dollar (DXY) - still under 104 but Sam said yesterday that "ricochet rabbit" would not surprise.
USDJPY - broke TL support; fell under 156 but managed to get back above it this morning in premarket trading. JGB-10Y holding near 1.04% after some wild moves the last 5 trading days.
BONDS
TLT - gapped lower this morning - still inside yesterdays range but barely. Still in the upper part of the weeks move - under 94 but holding near that level.
TNX - 4.144% tagged this week - 4.0% still on the table this summer.
ZN (10Y) - NHOW yesterday - before fading back to close inside of Tuesdays price. Falling lower this morning but still inside the previous weeks range.
ZT (2Y) - Broke out of last weeks range - still holding that breakout in premarket trading (barely). two days have seen buyers step in near LOD and bid it back to "mid day" ranges.
INDEX
NYSE - Wedge breakout holding (so far)
SPX - 5575 in focus.
SPY - 556 breaking. going lower.
IWM - still bullish - looking for 226.20 next.
VIX - 14.49 is the key ... hit it & now we are at the 200-day. 13.85 wouldn't surprise. Could see a fade back to 100-day MA. VIX is "in the channel... tag your it." Could even see 13.50$ area.
SVXY - gapped down - a little bounce.
VXN - (NASDAQ VOLATILITY) back above the 200-day MA. Been a long time since that happened. Worth watching.
QQQ - gapped down; Under the 21-day MA. 504 weekly worked. Evening Sar reversal weekly. 486 short PT worked great. Close to 479 weekly PT. Pre-market we are above 485 again & testing 485.85 hourly level... Once above that we have 488.80 next level above that then 491.17 above that ... 495.41 above that for a "relief bounce" - which wouldn't surprise. On the Downside - we have 476 daily lower PT or 479 weekly lower PT.
CHASE
AAPL below 228 target 226, 224
CMG 54 tagged, 52.50 next below
ETSY pushing into 67
IWM above 224, 226.2 next
MCD holds above 258 it has a channel to 271
MSFT - potential to 479 then bounce
NVDA above 122 gapfill to 125
PLTR above 28, 30.5 next
QQQ 485 pivot, relief bounce could go to 491, 495
HONORABLE MENTIONS
AA - at 37 again - not doing anything.
ADC - almost there.
AKAM - bounce at 400-week. Starting to come up from the grave.
AMZN - announce record sales for 2024 price day.
BX - large breakout; doing great - strong.
CMG - Under the 30-week now. Under the 55-day MA. Evening Star reversal daily. 54.50 daily short PT. Firmly below the 10-week. Lower levels are in the 50.00 area. Fun to short into the 200-day MA's. KMI - bullish - extended but at weekly highs.
CRWD - gap filled. Under the 55-day MA. 350 weekly tested.
CAT - like this - it's doing great. CSX - doing really well.
DRI - M&A with CHWY (?)
DHI - large pop above weekly resistance. freak of nature
DPZ - Earnings were not great - still needs to confirm a trend reversal - but it's under the 55, 100 MA & coming near the 200 day MA. 409.95 is overshoot.
DOW - 56.43 weekly - let's get it above.
ETSY - trying to rise off the bottom (weekly). Get to 67 & then the 200-day MA as long PT's. Get above & we'll see.
HD - still very bullish on this space.
JNJ - not ready - too choppy
KMI - got defended - looks great.
KRE - great breakout weekly - still a threat.
LLY - falling lower. bearish engulfing weekly - falling faster than Sam expected. 885 weekly support & then weekly channel top. 55-day MA is likely where it's headed. Intraday is not extended.
MDT - oversold play trying to come back up.
META - has to get back above 479 daily. 469 daily support.
MSFT - 10-week tag. 432.68 is gap fill. This one will fill the gap.
MCD - strong above 263 daily -
NVDA - still a great short. 55-day did not hit. Above 122 we could pop into 125 hourly.
NVO - below 55-day MA. They want out. Hitting 100-day.
NVS - reported & dumped. 105.50 likely.
PYPL - needs earnings to pop it out of the range
PLTR - firm. Didn't bust.
PFE - back above the 200-day MA. Looking better. Get above 30.84 weekly.
RITM - big breakout after a 200-day MA bounce ... - exciting but at the top of the channel.
STLD - consolidation. Earnings are not horrible.
SNAP - get & stay above 17 weekly.
SMCI - needs to break 800 weekly
SMH - broke strong weekly levels.
TPH - wicked extended - moved 10.00 which is a LOT for this company. Don't be surprised if it comes back in. TXT - looked well. Get above 93.50$ weekly.
TXT - stay above 93.45. Very productive. Awesome. Looks good if it stays above 93.45 daily.
TRV - doing great on that breakout.
TOL - Play off DHI moves.
TSM - raised forecast - say they have lots of demand. 172 weekly getting tested. Looks weak.
URI - continues the breakout weekly.
VRNA- nice moves! - 185.0 weekly breakout offers 100% increase in price. Hitting 23 weekly - a very bullish mover.
WING - under the 10-week MA. Under the 55-day MA. Under the 100-day MA. unwind happened FAST. Houlry Squeeze popped to the downside. 357 hourly ... consumer is tired of over-spending.
WMB - like it a lot - boring.
WBD - popping up from the grave. Cradle Formation weekly - powerful. above 9.28 weekly is very bullish. plans to split up offering a relief move. XOM - nice gap up higher on weekly.
XPO - the "go to" - nice breakout weekly.
Restaurants Shorts
CMG - Under the 30-week now. Under the 55-day MA. Evening Star reversal daily. 54.50 daily short PT. Firmly below the 10-week. Lower levels are in the 50.00 area. Fun to short into the 200-day MA's. KMI - bullish - extended but at weekly highs.
DPZ - Earnings were not great - still needs to confirm a trend reversal - but it's under the 55, 100 MA & coming near the 200 day MA. 409.95 is overshoot.
WING - under the 10-week MA. Under the 55-day MA. Under the 100-day MA. unwind happened FAST. Hourly Squeeze popped to the downside. 357 hourly ... consumer is tired of over-spending.
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 7/18/24