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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 7/03/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

FROM SAM -
I did a long, long, long post (sorry, not sorry) in #samanthas-market-thoughts that frames my market views: direction (higher until my MAG7 ratio hits), without small caps joining (despite timely call for bonds to bounce), impact of ROW weakness on US yields + equities (later this year), and my prediction coming true that Biden is done but Treasury liquidity is not.

I wanted to give as thorough a review before I close my screens for next 4 days and travel out of state. Luckily for you all, Rithika, Archna & Mikey will be running the live trading room Friday morning for NFP etc.

CHASES:
TSLA opened at 234 after pulling back from 240 PT premarket, so nice chase into 246 Hr resistance before backing off.
AVGO opened with a daily gap up at 1670, but I said it needed to trigger 1680.78 to really get going. This was on the news that Pelosi bought JUN 2025 $800C worth $5M and there is no reason to doubt her insider trading record.

SPX > 5505 ON DAILY IS BULLISH + < 5446 WKLY SUPPORT IS BEARISH.
QQQ > 485.90 IS BULLISH, < 479.19 WKLY SUPPORT IS BEARISH.

Strong MAG7 is the reason for the season.
That and weak USD; hence the solid bounce in precious and industrial commodities.

Yes, I am still worried about GOLD, SILVER, MINERS pulling back given my intermarket analysis,. but I an WRONG if DXY stays < 105.80!

Yes, I still think China plays are not done basing/going down.

Swing longs I like still:
Big: AMZN, AAPL, AVGO
Mid: UBER, ICE, PLTR
Small: MSOS, PYPL, GTLB
Also, bitcoin looks very weak with MSTR breaking 1315 monthly support.

Trends long breakouts:
ICE, IBKR
LLY has formed bearish engulfing on wkly = Protection needed
CCJ is digesting below $56 prior June 2007 high = Protection needed

Macro stuff:
I wrote yday that BOJ USDJPY intervention wouldn't surprise by Friday.
It is already seeing pressure, and with that the reversal lower in 10Y yields right on schedule. (TAN, ENPH bouncing as a result).

VIX + credit spreads still sideways - likely until end of July, and yet...
should Biden announce he is stepping down, lifting Harris at interim POTUS + further increasing Vegas odds of Trump presidency - we could see market correction sooner.

With that: Time For Protection...
AUG $530P OF SIZE just hit for $2.26

LAST BUT NOT LEAST... TSLA
Yes, I closed this yday as Swing Long. It was good enough:
Stock +30%
July $200C +350%
Aug Risk Reversal: +35,000%

I didn't want to look but I did: TODAY
Stock: + 40%
July $200C: + 585%
AUG $180P SLD/$200C BOT: +50,100%

I gotta turn my screens off now until Monday.
🫣
When I return I expect a resignation letter from Biden.

HAGW ALL!!


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

JULY 3, 2024 AM

MAG7 - large expansion yesterday - new highs and closer to Sam's 130 level.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - faded back towards 288 but still above it (still risk for SPX and indexes).

IWF:IWD - Still pressing highs.

WTI CRUDE - excitement on a dropping dollar.

GOLD (futures) - popped on DXY falling

Bit Coin - weak

FX

Dollar (DXY) - fell below 105.50 premarket. 106.20 still acting as powerful resistance. See GLD and SLV popping on the DXY fade. Back to weekly support & weekly TL. Looks like it wants to fail.

USDJPY - firm above 160.

BONDS

TLT - bounced on 90 perfectly. Boom - boom - double boom.

TNX - 4.35% likely PT. falling yields is helping.

10/2 spread - has not rolled over - has not rolled up.

INDEX

SPY - hanging out bullish.

IWM - safe to buy small caps after HY Credit Spreads "blow out"

QQQ - 486 support; break 479 for a bearish posture.

VIX - expecting lows by end of July. Suppression w/ credit spreads.

SVXY -

BXM - extended but moving higher; still hot even at resistance.

SWING

ICE - breakout; like it along; swing & possible trend.

IBKR - just great; close to breaking out. Needs to take out 129.

PLTR - near breakout levels; needs to stay above 25.20 to keep going.

TREND

LLY - shake n bake yesterday; had news. popped from the fade.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

AAPL - anything above 198 bullish; above 220 is good;

AVGO - going to get lit as news of Pelosi's portfolio gets highlights. Staying above 1661; Pelosi bought 5-million in call options on this (news). JUNE 2025 800.00 call strike. DEEP in the money. looks very supportive. (Same with $DELL)

AMZN - very bullish if the melt up continues.

CENX - impressive.

DELL - looks very supportive. (Same with $AVGO).

ENPH - shocked that it fell below 99.34$. Messy. Bearish Engulfing.

GLD - popped up w/ dxy falling.

GTLB - something interesting in the options flow - Sam mentioned this a while back. Has a google investment.

LI - EV popping w/ TSLA

NVDA - still have 123.50 lower pivot to hit.

NEO - EV popping w/ TSLA

NVDA - if we get back above it could shoot higher.

PARA - news; popped near it's 200-day MA.

PYPL - popped up to 59; it's holding but not high probability.

RIVN - like this chart! hitting the 200-day resistance; came back down. Helping AMZN (even if indirectly)

SLV - popped up.

TSLA - 246 PT

UBER - still like it. Likely post a financed spread today; selling a put to finance calls


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.