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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 6/27/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

FROM SAM -
AMZN is hot fire flames. Pushing $200 + then maybe some digestion. At some point, it should retest 191 area to see how it holds, but right now, it is GOOGL-lishish.
RIVN did come back down to 13.64 which was short PT from yday 16.32 STOP. But big picture it is digesting here for awhile for higher later - but for now, the thrill is gone. Move along.
Archna had a theme for rotation from semis into software. Boy is that working.
I rec'd DDOG yday in Swing channel: UP 7.5% SINCE!
But ALL of them are working as either breakouts in the works - DDOG, NOW, ADBE - or bottom fishing bounces - SNOW, MDB, CRM.
I AM TALKING ALL OF THEM ARE WORKING.
TSLA is also working, but digesting that big move yday.
What hasn't triggered but is working on it should conditions stay bullish:
SNAP just needs 17...
SHOP just needs 68...
MELI just needs 1695...PANW was another recently rec'd as Swing Long > 318. It is now 345 in just a week.
PLTR was another rec'd last month as Swing Long. It is digesting 23.64 Wkly support well. Just needs to get/stay > 25.20 for next let.
CVNA was another rec'd Swing Long > 99.19 with 115.23 trigger above to bring 132.55. Hit. Next 135 then 153 area in time.
Stuff I liked short:
MU below 135.85
NVDA below 156
MRVL + QCOM still selling.
QQQ if/when below 479 - so far this isn't working.
BABA still falling/had 72.81 as daily gap fill PT which hit today. Still see lower into 70.53 before a bounce.
PDD posted as Swing Short into 128 with overshoot into 126.75 200D is working great. This was part of my AMZN long, PDD short theme. BOTH WORKING GREAT.
Value Longs:
MMM boring but profitable swing long above 10W.
IP had massive puts sold at 37.50 after I said it likely gets defended at 40. Brazilian suitor withdrew offer, but I bet they will be back...AMGN + MRK triggered Swing/Trend long then got back inside triggers.
EW looks very constructive above 90 Wkly support.
ISRG - trend fave long is still stunning with its 45 degree up-and-to-the-right advance.
HIMS swing long needs to be taken down after LLY + NVO warning they have stock available. Translation: HIMS can no longer sell their compounding GLP-1 drugs 60D after supply becomes available again. Likely falls into 17.16 then in time 14.67 where it likely basis and gets bid back up.
Market is not bearish by my indicators BUT we clearly have MAG7 + semis + now oversold software doing the heavy lifting. We NEED the rally to broaden or we increase chances of air pocket getting pinched on any 2-3% pullback.
DEALER GAMMA: Warning from GS, which also echoes Nomura:
"Dealers reach peak gamma in a "modest" 2% move higher...but note that also falls off quickly should we move even higher. Worth pointing out is that dealers enter short gamma on a 2-3% move lower. Simplified: dealers will act as volatility dampeners if we move up/ down by 2-3%...after that things change, especially to the downside.
"Remember, we haven't had a 2% down day in ~340 days. We are pressing our luck people. DON'T BE COMPLACENT. We get a decent sell-off, and dealers trigger short gamma and quickly, selling begets selling.
Rithika chase summary notes:
SPX still within the channel of 5488-5447
QQQ above 479 pivot
If DXY moves higher, BTCUSD could get hit hard below the 200 day
MU bouncing off 135.85 pivot, below is bearish to 130
TSLA 198 is monthly resistance, potential to 210,215 if it breaks and then digestion there
SNAP needs over 16.49 for 19 ish
RIVN pushing to overshoot into 12.74
PDD 130 approaching below 138 then after some digestion 126.75
META holding 515 into 521, next is 524.5
CVNA 132 approaching , potential to 134
BABA 72.81 tagged, overshoots 72, below 74
DDOG pushing into 125,128 area above 123
ADBE pushing into 552.94 above 539
PANW pushed above 318 into 333 and now coming into 350.


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

JUNE 27, 2024 AM

MAG7 - breakout yesterday; holding that close in the pre-market. At highs & still bullish. Extended.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - got "near" 288 but has pulled away from it this morning. Still above 275

IWF:IWD - gapped up pre-market. Still in range on daily / weekly. Still at highs & still bullish.

WTI CRUDE - Looks ready to test 82.00 daily again. Still in the range daily; sideways but at the high side of the channel. FIRM.

GOLD (futures) - 2300 support held; rallied strongly up from that level; hit 2325 premarket. Hovering on the 2300 area.

Nat Gas - still fading

Bit Coin - above 61.5k premarket; still in a range daily. 60k support held. Still like 57.5k PT.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - fell away from 106 on the daily; still above 105.50. sharp drop from GPD report. Shake n Bake. More bullish than bearish (which is a big change).

USDJPY - held under 161 but still bullish; lots of speculation about an intervention. JGB - 10Y above 1.00% so still a threat. They are in trouble.

BONDS

TLT - testing 93.50 for support; wide range; still stuck in the channel.

TNX - bearish for the summer.

10/2 spread - still making lower lows w/ giant daily moves... trying to steepen.

INDEX

SPX - 5500 call wall (still). Key Support holding. Bullish Above - Bearish Below.

SPY - sitting here & not exciting. See some puts coming in - 405's for SEPT. that's odd.

QQQ - Held 479 KEY Level. Still bid; 480 premarket. Hardly moving on a weekly basis.

CHASE

AMZN 195 tagged, next is 197,199

ADBE pushing into 553

BABA 72.81 tagged, overshoots 72,

CVNA 132 approaching , potential to 134

CMG below 63 we have 61.50

DDOG pushing into 128 area

GOOGL 185 in freakout land

MU bouncing off 135.85 pivot, below is bearish above is bull

META holding 515 into 521, next is 524.5

PDD below 138 down to 134, and in time 130

PANW 350 approaching

QQQ 479 key pivot

RIVN pushing to overshoot into 12.74

SPX 5488 to 5447 is the current channel, upside and downside pivots for directional move

SNAP over 16.49 for 19 ish

TSLA 196.3 is resistance, potential to 200,209 if it breaks and then digestion there

HONORABLE MENTIONS

MAG7 or "AI Tech mega-cap plays" still where money is flowing. May get added to the Trend Longs.

AMZN - owns 17% of RIVN. LEAPS of size cam in today; JUNE 2026 options. After testing ATH's for a while it has finally broke upward & has lots of bullish options volumes coming it.

ADBE - good earnings; needs to stay above the junk; get above the 200-day MA. Earnings held. 553 PT.

ASML - has not rolled over. Has a look.

CRM - doing ok; under the 200-day MA. Bounce. Getting chased.

CVNA - has a great chart so guess what? 134 PT weekly; above that your getting into a 20.00$ move. Pushing above 132.55 & doing fine.

DDOG - Bounce. 127 / 128 PT daily.

EW - 93 weekly is the level to get above; could turn into a nice swing long above that. May need time. Earnings on 07.24.24

GTLB - bottom fish; pushing into the 55-day MA.

HIMS - dumping this morning. a "ticking time bomb" - playing on the LLY and NVO supply shortage. Below the 20.00$ weekly level. the 10-W HAS TO HOLD. 17.16 hourly is support that MUST HOLD. "Once the FDA announces the shortage has ended - HIMS has 60 days to stop selling that weightloss drug.

HUT - set to join the Russel 3000 index ... short covering pop.

IP - smack-down in premarket.

LEVI - great short.

MU - didn't offer stunning guidance. Good Quarter - just bad guidance. 135.85 daily support. Stay above that - or it's a short into 130 PT. (it's nearly at 130 hourly chart already).

MSOS - coming towards the 200-day MA. Could see some legislation on this space. SPECULATION PLAY. 50-week resistance above the 200-day MA resistance.

MDB - bounce. Get above 252 daily.

MSFT - keep it above 453.60 hourly.

MRK - 133 shy.

MLGO - up 39% and still climbing.

MELI - has a look; could catch a bid if AMZN does. 1674 daily breakout. get above 1800 weekly for a better play.

META - great breakout above 514 weekly. Bullish. Has to digest 500 & it did.

NVDA - playing over the 125 area. Still "pinned" at that 125.

NOW - 780 PT weekly.

PDD - has broken; below the 10W is convincing. Great short.

PANW - bullish bent; like it.

RXRX - a NVDA investment - did a public offering.

RIVN - 16.32 daily resistance (Sam warned yesterday). Still like the structure and like 20 to 23.00$. popped through the 200-day. 13.64 weekly support failed to support.

SLV - above 27.40 weekly we could consider a long play.

SHOP - not sure with this one; does not look great.

SNAP - has a look; needs to trigger. Looks great. 17.00$ is the trigger; has not triggered yet. 16.65 if your on a short leash.

SNOW - good job timing the btm. 128.80 is level 2 stay above. Bounce.

TSLA - the TOTW (trade of the week). Pushing Higher; looks great. 50-week MA resistance & above that is 209 resistance area weekly. Still doing really well. TSLA - re-test that 193

VRNA - it's trying... options are horrible. 18.47 is weekly PT. Above that weekly PT is very bullish.

XLV - has not fallen apart; defense sector. needs to breakout & should be ok - but it's not a momentum play. Sideways.

XLE - made it down to 200-day before it bounced

VLO - bounced before the 200-day MA.

ZIM- doing well.

These are the bullish bent.

NFLX, PANW, META


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.