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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
Markets slightly weak on Dollar and Yields spike after BOJ announcement
DXY reaching 104 level after overnight spike
USDJPY approaching 150,50 level; 152 is the level to invoke volatility
Oil is pushing into the 82.9 level, likely rejects here
QQQ 431.59 I still see hitting this week
BTC heading to 55K
GOLD likely breaks 2146 for a bit before getting defended after FOMC so precious metals shake n bake but still bullish big picture!
10Y below 4.37 is key...but 2Y T-note still has date with 102.
SPX still chopping about waiting on FED announcement
Growth is looking very weak as well with higher yields
VIX getting tighter, could take a few weeks;
SVXY pushing into 110.5, could soften there
AMD below 183 we pushed into the 10 week at 177, now lets see if we stabilize
SMCI below 917 we pushed to 886, below 886 we have 850 and 805
NVDA below 886 we pushed into 850 next is 823
XOM looking to see if we push into 114,117.93, needs above this level to be uber bullish
XLE above 80 we are pushing into 82.9 target, after some digestion we can push into 85.56
META needs below 480 for a further breakdown to 469 , soggy
GOOGL below 147 into 145,143.71 stop: 152
ARM heading o 117.9 eventually 105
GPS 24.5 is resistance, after some digestion can see 26.75
COIN below 220 heads to 213,208
GM above 41 can push into 44
IP 38 resistance, above can see 41.5LU low-risk swing long entry > 2.80 wkly close
Select value outperforming - like Energy + oversold stuff like GM, C, IP,
Michael's Trading Room Summary
MAR 19, 2024 AM
Sam will host an afternoon live stream Wednesday at 2PM to cover the FOMC announcement and Powell speech; the live stream will run from 2 to 3PM eastern. Then at 4pm ET, Samantha and Craig will host a live review of all the action in their Macro-to-Micro Power Hour.
Expecting the fed to cut 2x this year. Growth does not look like it has any energy. Semi selling off. A rotation out of growth & into value (like energy) is starting to show a little bit. Value names like $C, $GM, $JWN doing well.
MAG7 - Still holding at the highs weekly - still above the 10MA daily. Gapped lower this morning
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Firmly above 275 - tested 280 resistance daily for multiple days.
IWF:IWD - Continues to set lower highs and lower lows daily; back above the 50-day MA but still under the 20-day MA. Still expecting a roll over after hitting the under-side of the TL. A MACD Cross above zero would be bullish growth.
Intermarket
T2123 - Getting into a hourly BB squeeze; there WILL be a move.
T2126 - chop.
WTI Crude - into 82 daily. Looks busy. Still have an intervention collar. Would be very surprised to see this stay above 83. Would be a big trigger for higher. $RBOB - very bullish.
GOLD (futures) - 2200 held as resistance; 2150 seems to be a minor support. Does not look weak. Holding extremely well. 2147 daily support. Still looks very nice.
Nat Gas - 2.00 continues to be resistance; 1.76 daily acting as a minor support.
Bit Coin - tested 62.5k but lifted off of it. Sam said on the 14th that this would roll over & we have rolled over. Still Falling. Expect the BTC minors and proxies to be short still as well. 55k would not surprise.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - nearing 104 daily. The USDJPY announcement from the BOJ spiked the DXY up in the over-night hours. Looking for 104.20 weekly.
USDJPY - testing 150.50 & nearing the highs of 150.88. 152 will be a lot of drama if we get above
Bonds
TLT - gapped up premarket to 93$ daily. This is almost outside of yesterdays range. Still "short the rip"
TNX - testing 4.30% this morning after hitting a daily minor resistance around the 4.354. When or if we get above 4.7 then we'll talk. Yield Bull into EOY. The resistance is 4.36 - so getting into 4.37 would be a little bit of a trend difference.
ZN (10Y) - Closed the gap that Sam spoke about last week. Holding around that gap fill now for the second day. Bond Short into Gap Fill working so far.
ZT (2Y) - has not quite closed the gap - but tried. Holding near 102'04 area. Still expecting that gap to get filled. Bond Short into Gap Fill working so far.
Index
SPX - So many gaps to close. Still holding near the highs.
IWM - gapped down below 200 this morning. Not falling apart. At the 10-week.
QQQ - On hourly support; looks like it wants 431 hourly. 425.70 is a gap fill so keep it in mind. 2 levels of support at 430 weekly.
VIX - Hit 15.21 PT. Popped up this morning into the 14.50 area premarket.
SVXY - down in the pre-market; near yesterdays open. Still up on the week. Likely pauses at 110.50 hourly.
Chase
ARM heading to 117.9 eventually 105
AMD 183.83 tagged, may digest here and bounce into 188, needs below 183 for 177. Has weekly support at 174; almost there. Now at the 10 week 177 lets see if it stabilizes here
COIN below 220 heads to 213, 208
GOOGL below 147 into 145, 143.71 stop: 152
META - needs below 480 for a further breakdown to 469 , soggy
NVDA - 856 first level, next is 823 gapfill
SMCI below 886 we head into 850, 805
XLE pushing into 92.56 target
Swing
MSOS - swing called Friday working well.
Honorable Mentions
AAP - expect some sideways.
ARM - 105 weekly would be a support level but so far it really has not been pushed over. Could seek 117.82 daily. Maybe defend to the 55-day MA. Add time for the 105 PT.
AMD - weak sauce again - but needs to get below the 10-week or 185 weekly. Nearly to the 10-week this morning. Could see a bounce into 188 hourly. Moving towards the 55-day MA. Break 174 to see 164 weekly
BABA - still no weekly MA cross.
CHK - if you are long oil & gas then this looks good.
$C - Looks great still. Not done - could run into earnings.
COIN - 208 weekly pt & then 206.39. Still bullish above the 10-week; keep that in mind.
EBAY - hit PT and started going sideways.
GLD - still strong.
GPS - looks like a lot of shorts covering.
GIS - hitting the descending 200-day MA.
GOOGL - digestion In FANG's.
GLD - with USDJPY so busy this likely needs time. With FOMC around the corner it "could" get a pop but be careful.
GM - looks really good again. 41 weekly resistance. has been taken out. 38.36 is key - if you want a slow "value" play then this looks good (has some option activity today woo). 41.35 would be the push higher - or just "41" as the trigger. Get above the 41.80 PT for a cont move higher
HOOD - likely will fall move w/ bit coin.
IP - just great! 37 weekly is the level to stay above.
LU - still no weekly MA cross.
MMM - hitting the descending 200-day MA.
MSOS - 14.82 weekly - just needs more time.
META - was called as a chase short. 504 was the stop - has went well.
NVDA - Looks ready to give up the 860 level. A nice short. Need to break to get into 823. Just needed to break that 860.
PLTR - Lot's of insider selling. 21.85 makes a lot of sense for PT.
SMH - has to break 213 to get going.
SMCI - Weekly 927 support; anything below that offers a move below the 10-week. Island reversal on the daily. If 896 offers support then we could bounce into 927 area ... then we either roll over from 927 and fall back down or we pop above that into 952. Either way - look for the pop first into 927 area.
SMCI - 800 PT daily now that we popped up to attempt tagging 927 & have rolled over.SLV - look for a move after 22.50 weekly gets tagged.
TSLA - if 167.50 weekly holds then ok but needs a few weeks. If it does not hold then a move into 155 weekly.
TM - popping right back up after coming back.
VLO - ran very far / fast; pensive. Extended. The "mean" area is around 147.
XLE - Hourly pop into 91.50 area. 92.50 a level in focus. Taking a pause.
XRT - digested sideways.
XOM - Looks very bullish. Once this gets back above 120 weekly "OH MY GOODNESS" - it will be where money goes to hang out and it will be the "in thing" while tech will NOT be... but all of that is after this gets above 120 weekly. 114.61 weekly likely where it hits it head but also still looks good.
Bio Tech stuff
CRNX - thin - but news gave it a pop. Getting some flows. Above the 10-week. Not bad for a thin bio-tech.
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 3/19/24